Oklahoma Softball at Central Florida: Key Series for the Sooners
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 10:24 am
The Oklahoma Sooners travel to Orlando today to ready themselves for an important 3-game series with the Central Florida Golden Knights. The Sooners have a 42-4 record, a conference record of 18-3 (1st), ranked #2 in most every poll, and with their RPI ranking. Central Florida is 28-18 overall, a 10-11 conference record (5th) and the 35th RPI ranking. The Sooners are the best team on paper, but the games still have to be played. The reason that I feel that this series is so important is the at it is #1) on the road, #2) against a good all-around team in UCF, and #3) it proceeds the final series of the regular season against Oklahoma State and #4) the Sooners own a 1-game advantage over Texas in the conference race which is important as well.
The Golden Knights are a strong blend of offense, pitching and defense. Outside of the Big 3 (OU, TU and OSU), I think UCF is the next best blend of the three phases of the game.
In the circle, the Golden Knights two most often used pitchers, Sara Willis and Kaitlyn Felton, have a solid 2.51 combined ERA and a .240 BA Against, which might be a bit high. They do allow 1.71 bases per inning that they pitch via hits or free bases (W & HB). Katelyn Cochran (0.59 ERA in 23.2 IP), Grace Jewell (2.85 ERA in 34.1 IP) and Angelina DeVoe (3.23 ERA in 26.0 IP) does provide some additional depth for the Golden Knights staff.
Compare that number to the 1.39 base per inning that the entire Sooner pitchers allow per inning pitched as a team. (Maxwell has a 1.31 bases/IP, May has a 1.70 bases/IP and Deal has a 1.12 bases/IP). The Sooner pitching staff has allowed a BA Against of .180 and an ERA of 1.56. Maxwell, May and Deal allow a BA Against of only .172 and a combined ERA of 1.61. the three supportive pitchers for OU has a combined ERA of 1.37 is strong as well.
While the UCF leading pitchers are certainly effective, they are not what the leading pitchers for Oklahoma are in terms of effectiveness. The same is true for the supportive pitchers on each staff. I hope that Maxwell, May and Deal are busy this weekend and pitch well to lead the Sooners in the circle.
Defensively, the Golden Knights have committed 28 errors in 1269 plays that have been made for a .978 Fielding%. OU on the other hand has made 17 errors in 1138 plays for a .985 Fielding%. Both teams have played 46 games. So per game the UCF defense has had to make 131 more plays than OU has made in the same number of games. That is mostly represented by the fewer Ks that the UCF pitching staffs earn compared to the Sooners Ks. But UCF does play good defense, but thy have to make more plays per game.
On offense, here is the batting lines of each team:
.379 BA, .485 OB%, .681 Slug%, 8.39 Runs/G, 79 doubles, 7 triples, 87 HRs, 54 steals in 64 attempts, 40.0% Runners LOB.
.313 BA, .378 OB%, .452 Slug%, 5.35 Runs/G, 63 doubles, 8 triples, 30 HRs, 69 steals in 80 attempts, 51.6% Runners LOB.
Oklahoma has the much better offense of the two teams. I will say that UCF does lack true power in their lineup (3 players have hit 5 HRs as the most - Cody, Evans, Griffin) but they hit pretty well and have some speed on the base paths via many pinch-runners and a has 10 players who have started at least 20 games. At least 7 starters in the field hit .291 or better with 3 or 4 hitting over .343 on the season. Jada Cody, a player that has been on Team USA several times, is the best hitter for UCF with her 20 EBH and .343 average. Four base runners have stolen 40 bases in 45 attempts. Rowe leads that effort with 19 steals in 21 attempts.
In a typical game, OU will score 3 more runs a game and will have 15.37 base runners per game. UCF will have 11.11 base runners per game. OU typically produces 23.07 total bases with hits/walks/HB per game. UCF produces 14.78 total bases per game. That is over 8 less bases per game.
If the games play out as the stats indicate that they should, The Sooners should win all three games on the road. But in each game the first contest is the two pitchers and how effective each of them are. If one over performs or one under performs, the norms (stats) will not hold. That can produce unexpected results.
The key to the series to me is the Sooners offense. If they reach base as they normally do, and then they hit the ball with their power, the Sooners will win. I say that because I think the Sooner pitchers can pitch well enough to limit the UCF offense below their season's averages. If UCF scores less, and OU's offense is as I think it will be, the Sooners win three games in convincing fashion. I certainly hope this is the case this weekend.
I think two of the quartet of Sooner seniors need to have strong series this weekend. Two of Coleman, Jennings, Brito and Hansen need to do something big to lead the way for the Sooners. It does not have to be the same two each game, just two of the four in each game. I think that players like Boone, Parker, Torres, Sanders and Pickering can also provide additional offense to make the difference in each game.
Good luck to the Sooners in Orlando.
Boomer Sooner!
The Golden Knights are a strong blend of offense, pitching and defense. Outside of the Big 3 (OU, TU and OSU), I think UCF is the next best blend of the three phases of the game.
In the circle, the Golden Knights two most often used pitchers, Sara Willis and Kaitlyn Felton, have a solid 2.51 combined ERA and a .240 BA Against, which might be a bit high. They do allow 1.71 bases per inning that they pitch via hits or free bases (W & HB). Katelyn Cochran (0.59 ERA in 23.2 IP), Grace Jewell (2.85 ERA in 34.1 IP) and Angelina DeVoe (3.23 ERA in 26.0 IP) does provide some additional depth for the Golden Knights staff.
Compare that number to the 1.39 base per inning that the entire Sooner pitchers allow per inning pitched as a team. (Maxwell has a 1.31 bases/IP, May has a 1.70 bases/IP and Deal has a 1.12 bases/IP). The Sooner pitching staff has allowed a BA Against of .180 and an ERA of 1.56. Maxwell, May and Deal allow a BA Against of only .172 and a combined ERA of 1.61. the three supportive pitchers for OU has a combined ERA of 1.37 is strong as well.
While the UCF leading pitchers are certainly effective, they are not what the leading pitchers for Oklahoma are in terms of effectiveness. The same is true for the supportive pitchers on each staff. I hope that Maxwell, May and Deal are busy this weekend and pitch well to lead the Sooners in the circle.
Defensively, the Golden Knights have committed 28 errors in 1269 plays that have been made for a .978 Fielding%. OU on the other hand has made 17 errors in 1138 plays for a .985 Fielding%. Both teams have played 46 games. So per game the UCF defense has had to make 131 more plays than OU has made in the same number of games. That is mostly represented by the fewer Ks that the UCF pitching staffs earn compared to the Sooners Ks. But UCF does play good defense, but thy have to make more plays per game.
On offense, here is the batting lines of each team:
.379 BA, .485 OB%, .681 Slug%, 8.39 Runs/G, 79 doubles, 7 triples, 87 HRs, 54 steals in 64 attempts, 40.0% Runners LOB.
.313 BA, .378 OB%, .452 Slug%, 5.35 Runs/G, 63 doubles, 8 triples, 30 HRs, 69 steals in 80 attempts, 51.6% Runners LOB.
Oklahoma has the much better offense of the two teams. I will say that UCF does lack true power in their lineup (3 players have hit 5 HRs as the most - Cody, Evans, Griffin) but they hit pretty well and have some speed on the base paths via many pinch-runners and a has 10 players who have started at least 20 games. At least 7 starters in the field hit .291 or better with 3 or 4 hitting over .343 on the season. Jada Cody, a player that has been on Team USA several times, is the best hitter for UCF with her 20 EBH and .343 average. Four base runners have stolen 40 bases in 45 attempts. Rowe leads that effort with 19 steals in 21 attempts.
In a typical game, OU will score 3 more runs a game and will have 15.37 base runners per game. UCF will have 11.11 base runners per game. OU typically produces 23.07 total bases with hits/walks/HB per game. UCF produces 14.78 total bases per game. That is over 8 less bases per game.
If the games play out as the stats indicate that they should, The Sooners should win all three games on the road. But in each game the first contest is the two pitchers and how effective each of them are. If one over performs or one under performs, the norms (stats) will not hold. That can produce unexpected results.
The key to the series to me is the Sooners offense. If they reach base as they normally do, and then they hit the ball with their power, the Sooners will win. I say that because I think the Sooner pitchers can pitch well enough to limit the UCF offense below their season's averages. If UCF scores less, and OU's offense is as I think it will be, the Sooners win three games in convincing fashion. I certainly hope this is the case this weekend.
I think two of the quartet of Sooner seniors need to have strong series this weekend. Two of Coleman, Jennings, Brito and Hansen need to do something big to lead the way for the Sooners. It does not have to be the same two each game, just two of the four in each game. I think that players like Boone, Parker, Torres, Sanders and Pickering can also provide additional offense to make the difference in each game.
Good luck to the Sooners in Orlando.
Boomer Sooner!