So! What Do You Think So Far?

[1KCSoonerFan]

It's still early...

What do you think about the team so far this year?

[The Far Journey]

It's still early...

What do you think about the team so far this year?

Pretty much the same as I did last year. Hitting not there yet. Pitching, Jordy was struggling. Defense was often saving us. Coach was saying on a scale of one to ten we were playing at a four or five. And still we were winning. A lot of us were worried. Me I guess. This year the same. But what bolsters my confidence is how good these players are. The bench could form the nucleas of a top five or ten team. Rylie Boone is the best player in the country never to be named an all-American. Some of the other long time starters are not just all-Americans but all timers. Four peat? I hope so. They deserve it. But they've nothing to prove to anyone and I know they will never quit. So I'm glad to be just along for the ride.

[OUBeliever56A]

The pitching is throwing the ball well, ALL six of them through 8 games.

The offense is starting a little slow, but will find their legs and start running faster.

The defense has been as solid as ever.

8-0 is great. It should be 9-0 about 2 PM today. (Hopefully)

The first evening at Mary Nutter looks to be a bit tougher than some thought with Mississippi State 8-0 and owning 3 wins over Louisiana and Clemson. Wisconsin ran out of gas yeterday but has played decent before that.

[TN Sooner]

If you listened to the Plank interviews with Patty in both pre-games yesterday, it is clear Patty is not happy with the offense and specifically situational offense - last night was excellent example- I believe we left bases loaded twice.

Pitching seems exactly where you’d hope early in the season - solid, but still room for improvement.

Hitting - hasn’t been terrible, but no where close to expectations for this senior heavy roster. I’m confident we’ll work this out.

I was a bit worried about next week, with the CA “atmospheric River” still happening, but right now it looks good for Mary Nutter. We need some warm weather to thaw out the bats!

[cushcreekmont]

While this season is too early to be certain about the long run offense, the trend since Alo is decidedly down. She was a generational (or longer) player, but with new players picking up last year, it seemed like 2024 would be better than 2023 and not worse.

The one person improving each year since Alo is Brito. While Jennings' numbers are good, they have dropped.

2021 (Alo year) OU scoring was at 39% of total at bats; slugging was .778; Jennings' slugging 1.00 (Alo at 1.109)

2022 (Alo last year) OU scoring at 37% of total at bats; slugging was .734; and Jennings' slugging .940 and Brito .743 (Alo at 1.212)

2023 OU scoring at 31% of total at bats; slugging was .666; and Jennings at .781 and Brito .824

Just a few games into 2024 - OU scoring 27% of total at bats; slugging .571; and Jennings .792 and Brito 1.045 - Jennings holding, Brito continuing to improve and the rest falling further.

Lee (.704), Nugent (.694), and Ericson (.644) are gone. Need some others to pick up the extra base hits.

[TropicalSooner]

It's still early...

What do you think about the team so far this year?

Happy to be 9-0

Offense is not where I thought it would be, but it is slowly getting there.

Defense is very good. Assuming Jennings stays at SS, I'm not sure about the chemistry with Lilio at 2B. Perhaps that settles in eventually.

Pitching is very much up to expectations. Very glad to see the two Geurin sightings this weekend. May is fine. Keeney know exactly where to pitch the ball to get outs. Deal is fine. Maxwell looks fine as well. Monti too.

Freshmen--Pickering is a future star. I think Parker will be too

Biggest surprise to me is Ludlum. Wow. She's got grit. And a bat!

[inconnu]

Txass and Washington are FOR REAL! They have both bounded out of the gate. How they both got so strong, so fast,is noteworthy, to say the least!

Patty and her assistants have shown considerable savvy by recognizing Ludlam and Monticelli as potential top tier talent.

[OUBeliever56A]

While this season is too early to be certain about the long run offense, the trend since Alo is decidedly down. She was a generational (or longer) player, but with new players picking up last year, it seemed like 2024 would be better than 2023 and not worse.

The one person improving each year since Alo is Brito. While Jennings' numbers are good, they have dropped.

2021 (Alo year) OU scoring was at 39% of total at bats; slugging was .778; Jennings' slugging 1.00 (Alo at 1.109)

2022 (Alo last year) OU scoring at 37% of total at bats; slugging was .734; and Jennings' slugging .940 and Brito .743 (Alo at 1.212)

2023 OU scoring at 31% of total at bats; slugging was .666; and Jennings at .781 and Brito .824

Just a few games into 2024 - OU scoring 27% of total at bats; slugging .571; and Jennings .792 and Brito 1.045 - Jennings holding, Brito continuing to improve and the rest falling further.

Lee (.704), Nugent (.694), and Ericson (.644) are gone. Need some others to pick up the extra base hits.

"cushcreekmont"
I think your numbers are created by dividing the number of runs by at bats for each of those years. Not that I disagree with the results but to exclude over 300 plate appearences for walks and hit batters is a significant (15-20%) may require a little more match.

2021 - With 301 W/HB added = 32.7%
2022 - With 325 W/HB added = 30.8%
2023 - with 279 W/HB added = 26.4%
2024 - with 43 W/HB added = 24.1%

As I said, it does not change the decline you a re referencing, but I think these ae more complete numbers and the decline is less.

Comparing anything offensively to the 2021 season is simply a fool's folly. 2021 is simply the best offensive season ever. It is a one-of thing. As you mention, 2022 still included Alo with a .515 BA and a 1.212 Slug%. Again some things just blow #'s out of the water.

Post Alo in 2023, the numbers drop by over 5% from 2021/2022 on average. It is simple, Lee and Sanders + Erickson did not add up to be Alo/Johns/Snow. The production dropped off by Jennings as well in 2023, while Coleman and Brito bumped up quite a bit.

In 2024, the BA and the power has not shown up fully at this point. Maybe it does as the year rolls on. But the strikeouts do need to decrease in 2024.

Runs Scored per Game is an easier number to use perhaps - 10.63 R/G in 2021, 9.33 R/G in 2022, 8.08 R/G in 2023 and 7.4 R/G in 2024. Not sure yet, but the 7.4 mark could lead D1 Softball by the end of the year. I think it would have the last two years except for OU's stats.

[1KCSoonerFan]

Believer -

On another board someone put up a chart of stats comparing last year at this time with this year at this time through the first 9 games. I was surprised to see that the numbers were very close to each other....and OU has 14 HR's this year compared to 10 last year. We are also still undefeated, unlike last year. This helped me put my perennial early-season expectations in perspective.

Like you and many others who follow the team closely, it is clear that since the pinnacle of 2021, the offense has been in a downward trend. Stat mavens like yourself can see this clearly. I think this slow decline is more a retreat to the norm than an indication the ship is slowly sinking. What do you think? As you said, OU caught lightening in a bottle with the bats in 2021. My eyes are still adjusting to the flash.

Irony Sharpens Irony: OU had the greatest season EVER with the LONGEST WINNING STREAK EVER (and counting) with the 2023 team that is stat-wise the least of the 2021 and 2022 squads. Not bad for a team sliding into oblivion! Ha!

From my fan perspective, the norm has been skewed upward for several consecutive years, and I have some high expectations I need to let the air out of just a bit. Every team really is different. On the other hand, OU Normal is a different normal. Compared to the rest of the field, our stats still shine.

Pitching and Defense may have to carry a bit more of the load this year. I haven't given up on the bats. If we can keep the staff ERA near 1.0 to 1.5, and an APG near 7, we are in a very good place.

[OUBeliever56A]

"1KCSoonerFan"

I think that is a perfect summation of where the Sooners are maybe going to be in 2024. I wish I would have said it just like you did.

A shorter version is "We are spoiled by historic offenses!"

Teams will always have to pitch well and to play defense well. But few teams can just score people into oblivion. OU did that in 2021/2022. They did that somewhat in 2023.

It is ironic that the least offensive teams (2023 and 2024) have this streak going. the best offensive teams (2021 and 2022) lost 7 games. A 'not so rainy night in Georgia, Eberle, Alexander, Sandercock, Dolcini, Morgan Day and Faraimo/Acevedo did the trick against the Sooner offense with some less than stellar Sooner pitching in the first two seasons.

In 2023 it was Orme and Binford with help from Govan.

That list is short.

[oufanforever]

Offensive stats going down, losses also going down the last three seasons. Everyone relax :P

[SoonerGirl1201]

I think we are missing Haley Lee a little more than anyone else right now. I'd say pitching is almost exactly where it was last year or maybe even better. But I think with Brito, Sanders and Ludlam we should build our offense back up this year to somewhat match last year.

I'm excited about the team. I still think our toughest competition is still going to be Texas and agree that Washington also looks to be really good. I have zero confidence that the Tennessee or FSU coaches know what they are doing. When it is crunch time - they make mistakes. Coach White at Texas will not - he is cutthroat and is looking to be the Luke Skywalker that knocks Darth Patty off her throne and I'm guessing he is gunning for it to be this year. (Next year won't have as much sting for the teams that beat OU as we know the roster is going to take a massive hit - and even with great portals, etc we will still be a very inexperienced team).

[OUBeliever56A]

I think we are missing Haley Lee a little more than anyone else right now. I'd say pitching is almost exactly where it was last year or maybe even better. But I think with Brito, Sanders and Ludlam we should build our offense back up this year to somewhat match last year.

I'm excited about the team. I still think our toughest competition is still going to be Texas and agree that Washington also looks to be really good. I have zero confidence that the Tennessee or FSU coaches know what they are doing. When it is crunch time - they make mistakes. Coach White at Texas will not - he is cutthroat and is looking to be the Luke Skywalker that knocks Darth Patty off her throne and I'm guessing he is gunning for it to be this year. (Next year won't have as much sting for the teams that beat OU as we know the roster is going to take a massive hit - and even with great portals, etc we will still be a very inexperienced team).

I love your comment about Coach White and Texas that I bolded above.

[tycat947]

Txass and Washington are FOR REAL! They have both bounded out of the gate. How they both got so strong, so fast,is noteworthy, to say the least!

Patty and her assistants have shown considerable savvy by recognizing Ludlam and Monticelli as potential top tier talent.

I’m sure Zaleski (former volunteer assistant) shared as many of Patty’s secrets with rear White when she arrived in Austin over a year ago.

[1KCSoonerFan]

I always wonder about how much former coaches and assistants from one team give up the goods to their new team....maybe why they were hired away with an offer they can't refuse? Just speculation and a question I've had rattling in the ample spaces of my brain. I really don't want to set foot into Conspiracy Land now....or ever, really. It's gotta happen to some degree. Does it really matter to outcomes though?

So, if I take it on its merits that, for example, the Commander of the True Death Star (where stars go to die) is Mike White, and he Jedi mind-tricked a former assistant coach to get a leg up on OU, then he has more problems than I thought, not less.

OU has the Culture.
OU has the Commits.
OU has the Consistency, Charisma, Confidence, and Championships that are leading the transformation of women's softball.

Those things don't travel with hiring away a coach. (Personally, I just can't imagine Mike The Fright White being the face of women's softball going forward.)

There are a few miles to go for the ol' Schooner before things get serious. We may have to circle the wagons before, during, and after the trip to Arlington, or any other series of games. I am confident in Coach to make every moment of the journey count from beginning to end.

There is offensive production in the line up. Lots of it. I don't know when it will emerge, but I do have a real sense it is there. This year, I am trying to adopt my version of the Championship Fan Mindset.