1-Month until 1st Game! - Sooner Softball 2022 'Predictions'

[OUBeliever56A]

Today is the 1-month mark before the first game at UC-Santa Barbara at 4:30 CST. We are getting closer to softball season! I am ready for the season.

The last couple of years I have tried to 'predict' the offensive numbers for the OU softball team in one form or the other. So far I have done reasonably well with my effort. This is my 'annual prediction' of how I think the players will hit in the 2022 season. Last year were fairly good except that most of my thoughts were a bit low as to averages and power. Surprise! I have tried to not over-react and predict too high this season but these stats are pretty lofty. All the 'predicted' stats are based upon their career stats and are therefore close to the those. I have stepped out on a limb for a couple of players however. We will see how thick that limb is in June.

Batters 1 - 5

200+ PA …......	BA…..	OB%..	=	2B-3B-HR
Tiare Jennings.	0.432	0.497	= 19-1-23	- She starts at 2B each game.
Jocelyn Alo ....	0.434	0.543	= 11-0-29 -	She is the primary DP, but she does start in LF and RF some.
Kinzie Hansen.	0.431	0.495	= 11-0-23	- She is the main catcher and will start at 1B maybe 15 times.
Jayda Coleman	0.408	0.505	= 18-2-12	- CF is her domain.
Grace Lyons ...	0.380	0.480	= 14-1-14	- Lyons is THE SS every day, every game.

I think these five players will bat the majority of the time in the first thru the fifth spots in the batting order. I do think think it is possible that J Coleman and Lyons flip in the lineup. I am confident in the 'predictions' for four of these five players. For those four what is 'predicted' is very good. The one player I am not too confident in is J Coleman. I think she could go two directions as a hitter. She could continue to use her speed, slap and bunt game to ensure she hit in the .425 range and have occasional power. But as she bats in the 4-5 spot in the lineup, I wonder if she might not work more on power and therefore her average drop a bit while she adds power. I have taken a middle-of-the-road approach for her numbers. Maybe she can be both a high average hitter and have power though. If she does, these five players will be very, very good.

I will offer this thought about the first three hitters. Jennings, Alo and Hansen, as hitters could be as good of a trio of hitters that bat 1,2,3 in a batting order as I can imagine. They hit 85 HRs as a trio in 2021. I conservatively think they will hit 75 in 2022. If they would actually hit 160 HRs in two seasons and hit in the .455 range in 2021 and the .435 range in 2022, That would be something other-worldly.

Batters in the 6th - 9th spots

120-150 PA....	BA…..	OB%..	= 2B-3B-HR
Rylie Boone ..	0.375	0.455	= 10-2-5	- I think she primarily starts in RF, but could get some starts in LF too.
Lou Donihoo .	0.360	0.453	= 9-0-7	- She starts in LF many games.
Taylon Snow ..	0.335	0.381	= 8-1-3	- She is the best 1B on the team and will probably play each game with about 35-40 starts.
Jana Johns ...	0.321	0.452	= 9-0-11	- She will be the primary 3B with perhaps a few starts at 1B.
Lynnsie Elam .	0.320	0.381	= 7-0-11	- She is the backup catcher bit still very strong defensively. She will probably get some starts at DP also.

As noted, I think these five players will fill the 6th thru the 9th positions (5 players to fill 4 spots each game) in the batting order the majority of the time. For me, 'predicting' what Boone and Donihoo will hit in 2022 is very difficult. I probably cannot justify the EBH stats above for Boone but I just feel that she will play well in 2022 and more or less be a starter all season. As for Donihoo, these stats are based upon her career numbers. I think she will hit closer to her 2021 numbers but those 2020 numbers are still there to consider. I decided to believe her power will remain but her average will dip a little. I hope I am wrong. The better that Boone and Donihoo play will probably earn them more playing time. Could Snow, Johns or Elam provide more offense than what is shown? Yes, they could. But it would be improvements over their 4-year career numbers for them to do so.

Batting 6th and 7th

80 PA …........	BA…..	OB%..	= 2B-3B-HR
Grace Green ..	0.356	0.449	= 7-0-7	- She will mostly be used as a DP and a pinch hitter. She could play some at 1B.
Alyssa Brito ...	0.327	0.401	= 7-0-7	- Brito will play 3B mostly but can see backup play at 2B and SS and maybe some in LF or RF.

These two players will play and largely bat 6th or 7th when they play I think. If either of these players perform well, they could get more at bats. For both players, the main issue is where do they play. More playing time depends on a player above them not playing well or injuries. The depth at OU runs at least 12 players deep. The goal is to find the 9 best hitters out of the 12 players. The competition is very strong.

45 PA …........	BA…..	OB%	..
Quincee Lilio ..	0.360	0.445	- She is a good corner outfielder and 2B. She will be used as a pinch-runner at times.
Turiya Coleman	0.350	0.440	- She can play LF, RF, 2B and probably 3B. In an emergency, she could catch also. She will also be used as a picnch-runner.
Sophia Nugent .	0.325	0.400	- I see her focusing on catching in a reserve role and maybe playing a little 1B.
Hannah Coor ..	0.310	0.370 -	She will get some time playing defensively in the OF late in games. She could also be the first pinch-runner.
Alexx Waitman.	0.280	0.330	- I did not see enough of her in the fall. Maybe a pinch-runner and replacement player late in games.
Jordyn Bahl ....	0.335	0.370 -	Bahl will get some at bats as a pitcher. Maybe at times a pinch-hitter moving to DP.

This final group of players are the incoming freshman. Unlike many season lately, I do not see any of these freshman really challenging for starting roles. They will be replacement players in the batting order for the most part. The depth on the team is simply very deep from the talented roster. I do not think any of the freshman players should be discouraged by this. At least 4 spots will open up for the 2023 season. Their time to play a major role in the offense is in their future. By mid-season, one or maybe two of these players could push for more playing time. I would think that T Coleman may have the best chance to break out of this group followed by Lilio or Nugent. I have included Bahl because I think she will get to bat when she pitches at times. I do not know if that will be a season long practice however.

Let me know what you think.......?

Boomer Sooner!

[AustinTXSooner]

I find it interesting that the OU site lists a bunch of the athletes as "Utility": Snow, Donihoo, Nugent, Green, J.Coleman, Brito, T.Coleman, Lilio, and Alo.

I think

• Patty doesn't use a set lineup as much as she has in the past. Specifically I think the OF, outside of J.Coleman, has rotations.

• Brito (or maybe even Lilio) is the starting 3rd baseman by the end of the season

• Nugent gets a fair number of at bats. Whether that's at 1B/3B, OF, C, or DP, I don't know

• A lot more pinch hitters are used...or substitutions in general

• By midseason, when Bahl is pitching, the DP will occasionally replace someone else in the hitting lineup

• Bahl will get some time in the field early in the season, but not much late in the season

Lefty hitters:
Boone, Snow, Waitman, J.Coleman, T.Coleman, Lilio

Righty hitters:
Lyons, Hansen, Donihoo, Nugent, Johns, Green, Elam, Jennings, Coor, Brito, Alo, Bahl

[OUBeliever56A]

I find it interesting that the OU site lists a bunch of the athletes as "Utility": Snow, Donihoo, Nugent, Green, J.Coleman, Brito, T.Coleman, Lilio, and Alo.

I think

• Patty doesn't use a set lineup as much as she has in the past. Specifically I think the OF, outside of J.Coleman, has rotations.

• Brito (or maybe even Lilio) is the starting 3rd baseman by the end of the season

• Nugent gets a fair number of at bats. Whether that's at 1B/3B, OF, C, or DP, I don't know

• A lot more pinch hitters are used...or substitutions in general

• By midseason, when Bahl is pitching, the DP will occasionally replace someone else in the hitting lineup

• Bahl will get some time in the field early in the season, but not much late in the season

Lefty hitters:
Boone, Snow, Waitman, J.Coleman, T.Coleman, Lilio

Righty hitters:
Lyons, Hansen, Donihoo, Nugent, Johns, Green, Elam, Jennings, Coor, Brito, Alo, Bahl

- I agree about Coach Gasso not using a set lineup very much. The #6 through #9 spots will very fluid all year.
- About Brito starting at 3B - Johns has a great OB% which is an advantage over Brito. For Brito to start, one of two things have happened, 1) Snow is replaced by Johns at 1B or 2) Johns is not hitting well. I don't think Lilio plays much at 3B, but that is just my opinion. Lilio will play 2B and the corner OF positions.
- Nugent can play C, 1B and DP. I do not see her at 3B or the OF. Too many other options to play Nugent in the OF or 3B. Nugent's power did not show in the fall. If that changes, she could get more ABs.
- I agree with the offense expected from OU, there will be lots of subs used. After 2 or 3 ABs many subs will enter the game. As you seem to indicate, if a player does not hit in a couple at bats, they may be pinch-hit for or subbed for.
- About Bahl. She did show she can hit in the fall. But she did not show much patience at the plate as in 0 walks. She will hit at times, but I think the 'Flex' position will be used if she hits while pitching which allows for more flexibility in the lineup. I do not think she will play much in the field. Again, there are better options, but just my opinion.

Thanks for your thoughts.

[OUBeliever56A]

https://twitter.com/OU_Softball?ref_src ... r%5Eauthor

[cclift38]

I have a feeling Johns is going to have a good year. I don't see anyone replacing her at 3rd. I do see a scenario where she could move to 1st and Brito plays 3rd. But 1st is already a bit crowded with Snow and Hansen when she doesn't catch. I think Brito is the favorite to take 3rd once Johns graduates. I do think she'll play a good amount and be moved around.

I think the freshmen get a good amount of playing time in blowout games. The covid year hurts this groups playing time. If normal there would be spots open but with the covid year you have Alo, Johns, Snow and Elam taking spots that would normally be open. I'm interested to see how Nugent hits and if she gets time behind the plate. The backup catching spot comes open next year but there is competition with Jocey Erickson coming in. I think Turiya Coleman might be the most likely for regular playing time. She's an utility player that can play multiple spots. She flashed her bat at times in the fall. Coor should get some time in the outfield and has a plus glove and arm. Interesting to see her hit at the college level. With injuries to Lilio and Waitman its kind of a wait and see with them. Lilio has a reputation of high softball IQ and can play all outfield spots and 2nd base. Waitman is a middle infielder but it has been said she can play multiple positions including outfield.

I think May starts out the ace but I think by season's end it will be Bahl. I do think May, Bahl and Trautwine all get plenty of innings and will be used a good amount. This feels like a make or break year for McAdoo. She needs to prove something before Deal and Geurin get on campus.

I think the offense will still be the best in the game but expect a little bit of a decline do to a tougher schedule this year. There are still going to be more run rules than complete games.

[OU_Tom]

What a team

• I hope Grace Green goes out with a lot of bangs in her Senior year. Her bat is a game changer
• I believe in Lou. What a WCWS performance
• If Nicole May can continue to improve (even just a tad), this team will be unstoppable
• I might have to buy some tickets for the WCWS in OKC

[TropicalSooner]

Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but, I believe both Grace's - being seniors this year - have an extra covid year of eligibility left after this year.

[OUBeliever56A]

Yes, Grace Lyons (G3) and Grace Green (G21) can both come back for a fifth year in 2022-2023.