Bottom post of the previous page:
Well let’s see. Last years Jeff sweeps losing in sec….TropicalSooner wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 10:33 amReplying to two posts here.....OU Guy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2023 9:52 pmProbably one of the best posts I’ve read in some time. Appreciate you taking time.StatesEye wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2023 9:25 pm Well, this question didn't get the kind of "play" that I was wanting. I will let the thread die but not before providing some final thoughts.
First, I get the sense a foreboding of entering the SEC from many Sooner fans. I have a difficult time understanding this. Sure, 6 straight conference titles will be a thing of the past (NO ONE does that in the SEC) and 8-4 regular seasons will occur more often than we are used to (maybe, imo), but I think the last 15 years of never-ending media propaganda about the "mighty" SEC has influenced many perceptions of Sooner fans.
Let me ask a question. How good is this year's OU team compared to all OU teams over the last 10 years? Starting with the best OU team I would rank them accordingly....
2017
2015
2018
2016
2019
2023
2020
2021
2014
2022
Everyone will have a different opinion on the exact order, but I doubt many would rank this year's team more than one spot higher or two spots lower than what is above. I believe this year's team is (at best) a median OU team going forward, and considering the tempest the program experienced over the last three years, this year's team may be significantly below the median going forward. AND THIS YEAR'S TEAM WAS VERY, VERY GOOD!!!!! Better than I think many Sooner fans believe. More on this later.
Stats tell much of the tale and are far more successful than the so-called eye-ball test (which is mainly mass perception like SEC media pumping) in predicting winners and losers. Averaging so-called "advanced metrics" (FEI, FPI, SP+, F+, or various "computer rantings"), a 75% correct prediction for straight-up winners/losers can be achieved over the course of the season fairly easily. Also, averaging this way can get gamblers to between 49% and 50% correct against the spread. Yep, house always wins in the long run.....except for all the people I know.Vegas knows what they are doing and they understand that this is about as good as stats can get to predicting winners/losers. Beyond this point it is 50/50 (or inside knowledge), and bookies try to create even money on either side of the bet that pay each other off and Vegas gets the profit for the service provided.
I'm sure this isn't news to many. My point is that these stats do, in fact, actually mean something, and the stats always outperform mass perception.
Without going into the details, I've analyzed the win/loss probabilities based on the end-of-season ratings of of FEI, F+ and Massey. I've applied these win/loss probabilities to each OU game on next year's SEC schedule as if they were played this year. Here are the results....
Tenn at OU - 68% OU win
OU at Aub - 69% OU win
OU vs TX - 47% OU win (Lord, please don't let the best team win)
SoCar at OU - 82% OU win
OU at Ole Miss - 60% OU win
OU at Mizzou - 64% OU win
Alabama at OU - 45% OU win
OU at LSU - 50% OU win
Here are the results of playing this season ten times.....
5-3 (Losses to Aub, SoCar and Ole Miss.....hmmm seems familiar)
7-1 (Loss to Tex...this was hard to relay. Must be true to methodology, though)
5-3 (Losses to Tex, Mizzou and Alabama)
3-5 (Losses to Tenn, Aub, Mizzou, Alabama, LSU.....worst case?)
4-4 (Losses to Tenn, Mizzou, Alabama, LSU)
4-4 (Losses to Tenn, Tex, Ole Miss, LSU)
5-3 (Losses to Tenn, Alabama, LSU)
7-1 (Loss to Tex)
5-3 (Losses to Tex, SoCar, Mizzou)
6-2 (Losses to Tex, Mizzou)
Overall: 51-29 (5.1 - 2.9 for 10-season average).
Readers can take it from here, whether they believe this year's team is better than average going forward, about average going forward or below the average going forward.
I think one wildcard is that SEC fans are fanatic just like OU fans. They and their teams/culture have bought in. They have put down the B12 and thus OU forever. Our heads up games in playoffs didn’t help.
But thats the thing, how many of their teams would loved to have been in playoffs like us but never made it - yet they coatail ride on the SEC team who beat us (and that same SEC team beat them too).
Every away game we play will be like a SB for them. They want so bad to prove how bad we are and great they are. So we’ll get the loudest of loud. And their A game. And likely will get the “new team” ref treatment so can’t count on calls. That may make the first year a bit more difficult, especially since we’ll have a new QB/OC and lots of other new youngsters.
If we can do good this year it will help change opinions. Another note, all the teams we play had us added to their schedule too so it works both ways. Their schedules just got harder. We did draw the hardest schedule of all SEC teams too, with only 3 home games, 4 away and 1 nuetral.
I expect to go 5-3 in conf with a chance at 6-2 if our youngsters mature quickly. We do have 4 home games to start season with first 3 OOC and then Tenn. if we beat up on Tenn that will send a signal.
OUG--I think you posted an important observation here: that SEC fans are as fanatic as OU fans are//their teams and cultures--including fans--have "bought in".
This is, in most cases, waayyy different than what we are accustomed to. We will not see those half filled stadiums like Iowa State or Kansas State...or the empty stadium of Kansas (although all those teams have been more supported recently)....ALL of the SEC teams, even S Car will have full or nearly full of fans that are hostile to whoever their opponent is. We will have a hostile environment for every away game we play.
StatesEye--Nice post! Hats off to you. I saw the post away that you mentioned and I like the way you tweaked it for the Sooners and next year's schedule and how we would have fared with this year's team.
I cannot compare to all the data you provided and won't try, but in my 'amateur fan' eyes, this is my perspective:
I've said a couple of different times that I've felt that last year was a Year of Discovery--we found out how bad we were from the Riley/Grinch years and how they left things; this year was our 'Rebuilding Year'; and next year would be our first year to compete for championships. So far, our outcomes have sort of followed that path, more or less, although with unforseen personnel losses to the NFL and to the Portal, next year's expectation to compete for a championship may prove to be a bit lofty. Last year had to happen to show us the fans and also the staff just how far off the track the train had derailed and this year was actually pretty good. I thought we would come in at 9-3 and we did a bit better than that.
To me, with this year's team, I think we would have lost to Alabama (even in Norman) and Ole Miss. Some think Ole Miss had a good record because they didn't play anybody--well, yeah they did: they lost to Bama and Georgia (kinda figured those) and had to score 38 pts to beat A&M and 55 pts to beat LSU. The point there is they can score some points and we would play them after Texas, and after Texas this year, we were not particularly in a good place. LSU with their QB would probably be a a third loss. And then if you take the games we had against Kansas and Okla St and switch one of those to a game in the SEC that we 'should win', let's say Missouri where we probably wind up losing (because we don't get that first down), then that leaves me at 4-4 against our new conference foes.
I do like our chances next year though. We have Stutsman and Bowman coming back...and also Terry and Lacey on the D-Line, Backers are solid. O-Line is my worry point I guess....but getting EPL yesterday should help plus the two Jakes both had playing time this year. If we can get a halfway decent run game installed in the off season, I think JA and the receiveing corp can make life miserable for a lot of our competition next year.
Championship worthy? Hard to say, but would like to take a run at it while we still have Stutsman and Bowman.
Next year team undefeated in SEC
