Big 12 Softball Tourney Thoughts: Play-In & Seeded Games W & TH

[OUBeliever56A]

The Big 12 Softball Tourney begins in OKC at the Devon / Hall of Fame Field with two Play-In Games on Wednesday. All games can be seen on ESPN+ thru the Semi-Final Games. The Finals is on ESPN2 on Saturday at 6:30 PM. Kansas (#7 Seed) and Houston (#10 Seed) open the tourney with a game at 5 PM on Wednesday followed by Texas Tech (#8 Seed) and Iowa State (#9 Seed) at 7:30 PM.

In the first game, I found it to be interesting how far the Houston offense has fallen off the cliff. Houston once a good offense team, is hitting a meager .226 BA with a .673 OPS in conference play and scoring 3.48 runs per game. On the other hand, Kansas has held their own on offense and are hitting .244 BA with a .693 OPS. Both teams are scoring close to 3.5 runs a game in conference play.

In the circle, the Kansas pitchers have a big advantage of over 2.40 runs in ERA for the season and 3.13 runs less in ERA in conference play. The two Kansas pitchers, Hamilton and Brooks are much better than all of the Houston pitchers. The two pitchers for Kansas holds the game in their hands. As they pitch against Houston will be how the game goes in the end. If either or both pitch well, the will defeat Houston unless the Houston offense wakes up and finds thier mojo again. The question for me is which pitcher(s) will Kansas use to pitch against Houston and therefore save the other for facing Oklahoma in their next game on Thursday if they defeat Houston. Maybe even Bruno for Kansas sees the circle against Houston. I imagine that Houston will go for broke and pitch Shelby Smith against Kansas. She is their most reliable pitcher I think. If they defeat Kansas, they will try to piece together a game with three or four pitchers against Oklahoma, I think.

As they did in the conference series which Kansas swept scoring 17 runs to Houston's 8, I think Kansas wins this Play-In game also. But there were two 1-run games in the series with Kansas winning.

The second Play-In game is between Texas Tech and Iowa State. It will be the first time that these two teams have played as their entire series in Ames was cancelled in the 3rd weekend of the Big 12 season. So this will be the first game between the two teams. Iowa State has struggled to score runs in confernece play as they have averaged only 2.91 runs per game. But they do have much better pitching stats even both are not very good. I-State's conference ERA is 6.35 compared to Tech's 9.05 ERA. Texas Tech has to literally hit their way to a victory in this game against I-State's pitchers. Last weekend, Tech scored 7 runs against Texas and gave up 50 runs. (I am sure those 50 runs killed Tech's ERA.) If they can climb out of that hole, maybe they can find the bats this weekend and win a game.

My instincts say that Tech wins this game because of offense. But I can see how I-State can win with a solid pitching performance. I think I will choose Texas Tech because I thought they would be pretty good this season in conference play and they have not done as well as I thought. Texas Tech is 28-20 for the season, though.

The other two games are going to be played as the first (11 AM) and the last (7:30 PM) games on Thursday.

The first game Thursday is between Oklahoma State (#3 Seed) and BYU (#6 Seed). It is interesting to me that BYU won one of the three games by the score of 11-8 against OSU in Provo in conference play. The two teams are close in offensive output with 5.70-ish runs per game in conference and 6+ runs a game overall. BYU has scored more runs than OSU for the season.

But the BYU pitching is a mess compared to the Cowgirls. If the game turns into an offensive affair, I can see BYU threatening to win the game over OSU. But if OSU decides to pitch Rosenberry or Kilfoyl, I thing that may not happen. Oklahoma State does have a decision to make as to how they handle their pitching staff in the tourney. If they want to ultimately save Kilfoyl for the finals, maybe they try to win over BYU without using Kilfoyl unless that absolutely have to. Maybe they try to beat BYU with Aycock in the circle. But Aycock started the game that OSU lost to BYU. So maybe they have to pitch Rosenberry against BYU. Both Rosenberry and Kilfoyl pitched well against BYU in the other two games. This game could be interesting from a strategy perspective.

But, right now, the OSU offense is hitting on most of their cylinders and they should be able to score against the BYU pitchers. I think OSU will be heavily favored in the game, but selecting the pitcher they start against BYU is an important selection for OSU. OSU should win this game over BYU.

The last game on Thursday night is Baylor (#4 Seed) against Central Florida (#5 Seed). In Big 12 play this season, the two teams are virtually the carbon copy of each other statistically speaking. About the only difference in the two teams is that UCF scored 1 full run more a game for the season, but not in conference play. I think that Willis is the best pitcher of the two pitching staffs and that may be the biggest difference. UCF also has more "real" power also. But counting out Glen Moore is not something anyone should do.

UCF recently was swept Baylor as the Bears won all three games by 1 run. Baylor is on a 9-game winning streak in Big 12 play currently as they finished strong to end up in 4th place. I wonder if Baylor can keep that up and won a 10th game in a row. I am going to go out on a limb and say that I think UCF wins the 4th game between the two of them after losing the first three games. They may be able to do that without using Willis also, who they could save the next game against Texas.

The winner of the Houston - Kansas game plays Oklahoma (#2 Seed) at 1:30 PM on Thursday. The winner of the Texas Tech - Iowa State game plays Texas (#1 Seed) at 5 PM on Thursday. I will have my thought son those games on Thursday morning.

[TN Sooner]

Kansas was cruising thru 6, but gave up 3 in top 7. Held on to win 6-5

[SwampSooner]

Texas Tech beat ISU 10-9 in 8 innings and will face UT tomorrow. UT swept all 3 games from Tech in Lubbock last weekend by a combined score of 50-7.

[OUBeliever56A]

As noted above, I was to for two for two on my guesses about the winners of the Play-In Games.

• Kansas defeated Houston 6-5. But Kansas led 6-1 after the 4th inning before Houston rallied to score 4 runs in the 6th and 7th innings to fall just short. Houston had the bases loaded with two out in the top of the 7th inning. The game ended on a popup to SS as Kanas hung on to win.

Kansas moves on to play the Sooners today at 1:30 PM.

• Texas Tech came from behind to defeat Iowa State 10-9 in 8 innings last night in the last game. Iowa State led 6-0 in after the top of the 4th and then 9-7 after the 6th inning. But Tech hit two solo HRs in the bottom of the 7th to tie the score at 9-9. The the Red Raiders hit another solo HR to win the game in the bottom of the 8th with 1 out.

Texas Tech moves on to play Texas today at 5 PM today.

[OUBeliever56A]

Here is the Sooner staff writers article about the Sooners playing in the Big 12 Softball Tournament in OKC at the Devon / Hall of Fame Field.

https://soonersports.com/news/2024/5/8/ ... p-thursday

With the Kansas win over Houston, Oklahoma will play Kansas today at 1:30 PM. OU swept Kansas in Big 12 play in the last weekend of March by the scores of 6-1, 17-0 and 7-3. After Kelly Maxwell tossed a CG game WIN in Game #1, the Sooners used multiple pitchers in the next two games as the Sooners sent May (3.1 IP WIN), Geurin (1.0 IP) and Monticelli (0.2 IP) to the circle in Game #2. In Game #3 the Sooners sent Deal (2.1 IP), Keeney (2.2 IP WIN), Geurin (1.0 IP - 1 run), Monticelli (0.1 IP - 2 runs) and then May (0.2 IP) to the circle.

The Sooners hit well against the Kansas pitching as they totaled a .389 BA, a .513 OB% and hit 10 HRs for a Slug% of .733. Frankly, the Sooners have not hit that well again in a Big 12 Series. Other than the Houston series, the Sooner pitchers have not pitched as well either.

So today, what happens in OKC?

Kansas will likely start Katie Brooks who has not pitched too well as of late with three straight losses. The Sooners did rough up Brooks in Lawrence in the second game of the OU-Kansas series. But with Hamilton and Ludwig pitching against Houston last night, Brooks is likely today. Ludwig is usually used in relief so she probably does not start, but she did start games against Texas and OSU. So it is also possible that Kansas start Ludwig after only 0.2 innings last night.

For OU, the pitching plan might be anything. With a win against Kansas, the Sooners have to keep in mind that they will likely play OSU and then Texas on Friday and Saturday. Will the Sooners set up their rotation to be able to use their two best starters on Friday and Saturday or will they do something else. the something else could be using today's game as a tune-up game. In no way should the Sooners take today's game casually, but the could let several pitchers throw today to get them ready for the next two days. That could look like a game where Maxwell, May, Deal and Keeney pitch today at least. Each could treat their appearence as a start and start innings in relief. Or the Sooners could pitch their "#3" pitcher today and see what happens keeping their #1 and #2 rested. The Sooners used all six pitchers they have against Kansas in their series as noted above.

I think we might see Maxwell start and maybe pitch two innings. Then I think May pitches for an inning or two. Then probably Deal gets at least an inning. If there is an inning left, Keeney will be sent to the circle. Or to make it simpler, the Sooners could give the game to May, Deal or Keeney and say go win the game and save very one else for the next two days.

But the key will be the offense I think. I would love to see the Sooners just "see the ball, hit the ball" but that is not the full plan I think. Six or more runs a game is a pitcher's best friend. Eight or more runs a game is the pitcher's best friend forever.

I am ready for the Sooners to put together a strong weekend this weekend. It would be a wonderful thing to see.

Boomer Sooner!

[OUBeliever56A]

As far as the Texas Tech - Texas game today at 5 PM. The Longhorns simply overwhelmed the Red Raiders in Lubbock last weekend. Texas outscored the Red Raiders 50-7. Texas can probably pitch anyone on their staff and feel comfortable except for Simpson. I do not see a solution for Tech to be able to slow down the Texas offense. Texas will win easily and probably in 5 innings.

[TropicalSooner]

Just a reminder about the first game on the schedule for today's tournament--the BYU vs OSU game that starts at 11:00am. The BYU coach was famous (with OU at least) for his stalling and delaying tactics and our game with them ran 3 hr and 7 min. And that was a 7 inning game. BYU has shown it can hit. And if they get any reasonable performance from their pitchers, they could possibly keep pace with OSU. This is assuming of course, that OSU sits Kilfoyl today and keeps her fresh for the game with OU tomorrow. We've already seen two 14 inning games in the SEC yesterday, and the T Tech game went 8 innings last night. Any extra innings for the BYU/OSU game would certainly delay our start time way past 1:30. By the time BYU/OSU finish, the people that put the tournament schedule together may wish they had scheduled that game last instead of first.

[MsProudSooner]

BYU defeated OSU 7-2.

[BudaSooner]

Yep, the Pokes committed 5 errors, allowing 3 unearned runs. WTG, Pokies!

We will be playing the BYU Coogs at 5PM in tomorrow's game.

[SoonerGirl1201]

Kinda surprised OSU choked, but I'm guessing their luck just ran out (they spent it all in Norman). Was super glad to see the Sooners put it together and run rule Kansas. Perhaps this is the start of the real OU team showing up and making a run to the WCWS

[inconnu]

We should rightfully consider ALL games from here on are played against very worthy competition!

[inconnu]

Arizona SMOTHERED Washington, and UCLA 6-0 over ASU!