Food for Thought: LOB for the Sooners in 2024

[OUBeliever56A]

Here is something to think about:

For the season the LOB # is at 40% with:

- 444 hits (9.65 H/G),
- 246 walks, 17 HB (5.72 H&HB/G)
- 23 ROE (0.5 ROE/G)
Total base runners per game = 15.87 /G
- with 292 LOB (6.36 /G)
- Oklahoma is scoring 8.39 Runs/G.
- Oklahoma is losing 1.2 base runner per game for various reasons. (As everyone has commented on.)

First off....many teams would like to have 45 runners on base in a 3 game series for 15 a game. OU had 54, so OU is ahead of the game mostly because of the very high number of walks.

For a comparison, here is a few teams #s. (The Top 5 + OU in the SA's Top 25 this week.)

Oklahoma = 40% LOB
Duke = 50.1% LOB
Texas = 49.4% LOB
Tennessee = 57.8% LOB
OSU = 48.7%
A&M = 49.2% LOB

(Assuming the ROE number is the same as OU is at 5.18, the same as OU's.)

Might we be a bit worried about something that is over 8.7% better than the other "top 6" teams in the country?

Boomer Sooner!

[Bixby_Sooner]

Most of the time when I hear fans complain about things like this, or most other stats, I chalk it up to the OUstanding job that PG has done in spoiling this fanbase over the past decade and beyond. When it comes to softball, OU Fans are incredibly spoiled.

We have gone from formerly being The World vs. Oklahoma to currently hand wringing over a few losses, bad plays, errors, etc. There are well over 200 other D1 softball teams that would love to have the "problems" OU has.

[SoonerGirl1201]

Totally agree. As I was listening to the radio broadcast yesterday Plank mentioned it quite a few times and even Patty was all over it. Totally agree - on one hand you can't be satisfied and assume that when you really need to push across the runner in a WCWS game you will be able to. You have to always be hungry and aggressive. Scoring runs with runners on base is not something you just turn "on" when you need it. For the most part with our competition in the Big12 we don't "need it" and be satisfied with less. That is the very reason, though, that we lost to texas. When we needed it - we didn't have it.

However, at the same time, we have such amazing hitters that we are getting tons more runners on base than most all other teams. So the fact that we leave so many on base is a bit of a red herring stat.

But back to Patty's comments post game on Sunday. We have the pitching and defense to win it all - but if we don't start getting that cutthroat - "score every time possible at what ever cost regardless of who we are playing or what inning it is" mentality, we may very well lose ala the texas games over and over when we play tough competition on our way to or in the WCWS.

What will bother me is not losing to a team that is better when we play as well as we can. It will bother me to lose to a lesser team simply because we didn't play to our potential. I honestly believe we are the best team this year, and we should have beaten texas in at least that second game. We are hamstringing ourselves and don't need to be doing that. Just hope they get it figured out. I have to believe the majority of this team is satisfied with what they have accomplished the past 3 years, so it will take a whole new approach at motivating and driving them to exceed their current satisfaction level. If Patty is the GOAT that I think she is - she will find that trick to get them there.

[AustinTXSooner]

FYI, number of players and rings.

3: 5 (Boone, Coleman, Hansen, Jennings, May)
2: 3 (Brito, Coor, Lilio)
1: 5 (Deal, Geurin, Hodge, Sanders, Torres)
0: 8 (Bland, Keeney, Ludlam, Maxwell, McEnroe-Marinas, Monticelli, Parker, Pickering)

[OUBeliever56A]

FYI, number of players and rings.

3: 5 (Boone, Coleman, Hansen, Jennings, May)
2: 3 (Brito, Coor, Lilio)
1: 5 (Deal, Geurin, Hodge, Sanders, Torres)
0: 8 (Bland, Keeney, Ludlam, Maxwell, McEnroe-Marinas, Monticelli, Parker, Pickering)

Now let's add these players from 2021 up through last year:

In 2021 - Juarez, Saile, Vestal, Rains, Thiede, Mendes, Knight, Koeltzow, Puni, Pogue
In 2022 - 2 rings - McAdoo, Alo, Elam, Snow, Johns, Donihoo (1 or 2)
In 2022 - 1 ring - T Coleman, Trautwein
In 2023 - 3 rings - Lyons, Green
In 2023 - 2 rings - Nugent, Bahl
In 2023 - 1 ring - Storako, Lee, Erickson

[inconnu]

FYI, number of players and rings.

3: 5 (Boone, Coleman, Hansen, Jennings, May)
2: 3 (Brito, Coor, Lilio)
1: 5 (Deal, Geurin, Hodge, Sanders, Torres)
0: 8 (Bland, Keeney, Ludlam, Maxwell, McEnroe-Marinas, Monticelli, Parker, Pickering)

I would hope that Boone, Coleman, Hansen, Jennings and May would be motivated to achieve the unique status of having won 4 NC's while in college. I don't know if that feat has been done before in any sport. It certainly hasn't in softball. Also, no college softball team nor coach has ever won 4 straight titles. That includes all 5 of those players and Patty Gasso, as the GOAT!

[1KCSoonerFan]

Thank you '56 and Sooner Girl for your stats and thoughts about the stats. You certainly answered my questions and expressed my thoughts about the LOB "issue" for OU.

I thrive on the dialogue between my own perceptions (often biased and based on what I Want to be happening rather than what IS happening) and the FACTS: OU is the best in D1 (or among the very best) at scoring runners who get on base.

Whether runners on base score from walks, HPB's, fielder's choices, bunts, sacrifices, slow-roller-infield dribblers, or walk-off Grand Slams makes no difference in how they are counted in the box score. OU puts abundant runners on base...and is elite in their peer group in getting their foot on home plate....more so than I thought and felt. That's on me, not on them.

Is there a stat out there that shows where OU ranks in "Non-hit Runs Scored?" I mean, if we are really good at scoring runs, and don't even need hits to get them....that is just amazing! For example, OU takes lots of walks because of excellent plate discipline; which is an aspect of batting prowess and skill that gets over-looked for its impact and importance, IMO. Also, Base-running that puts a runner in scoring position (like the lead runner advancing and extra base on a routine OUT, over-throw, or missed cut-off) is another, "Non-hit" bonus that I have seen add up over the course of a game.

I can recall numerous times when the Sooners score a run without a hit:

The Sooners get a walk or HBP. The runner advances to second on a bobble by the catcher - or a straight steal. The batter hits an easy ground out to first on a "hit/bunt and run" play with the runner at second getting a good jump on contact. One out. No hits. Runner on third.

Next batter gets contact, puts the ball in play, and the defense can only go to first for the out. The runner at third scores! One run scored. No hits. Two outs. The next batter comes to the plate...and here is where I am hoping for that long ball or a two-out rally EBH - and by golly, that happens a fair amount, too!

The little things add up over time. A flick and a fleck is a bushel and a peck...and a hug around the neck. From an old Okie song, "I love you a bushel and a peck, a bushel and a peck, and a hug around the neck." Best sung on a porch swing, on a warm, Muskogee summer day, by my mother. I plead hopeless Nostalgia.

'56 answers the FACTS side of it. Honestly, I still get frustrated when OU loads the bases with 1 out or less....and scores one run or less. I focus on those "missed chances" rather than Deal/May/Maxwell shutting down the opposition with a two-hit shut-out through the first five innings. I believe the team tries their best to score every run they can. Why would they not?! The stats show that the team does come through better than most!

On the other hand, as Sooner Girl notes (my interpretation), "Let's be friends right after you are completely overwhelmed in a clinic of how the Sooners win high-level softball games." The porch light is always ON in Norman.

The "light-switch" analogy is interesting - turning it ON and OFF. Does it really work like that? Or does it just LOOK like that? I don't know. It seems like Momentum is a real thing, and it can build like a wave....and in that crazy, mysterious way, creates its own luck, breaks, and against-all-odds outcomes: The team playing at its PEAK. (Mostly, though, the stats cut through to the reality....and a PEAK Sooner team is very dangerous in the stats game.)

I also think in terms of the things the team can control and the things they can't control. Even if the squad can do the Turn It On and Turn It Off magic, everything is NOT in the control of the 2024 Sooners. If the WCWS were a the Best of Seven games rather than Best of Three games, I'd be feeling like talent, luck, and strike-zone disparities would play out in the wash. As Sooner Girl notes, the best the team can do is build an ON switch into their muscle and mental memory. Rather than a rheostat of measured effort and passion, Don't play the ON-OFF game. Play THE GAME with all you got - every game, every moment, every inning (Grace Lyons quote). That's the Championship Mindset.

[TN Sooner]

Kudos to 56 for doing the research and demonstrating that, while LOB is certainly Ky an issue, but we score a higher percentage of runners on base than the other elite teams in 2024.

I’m reminded of something a former MLB pitcher says on broadcasts for my favorite baseball team (Reds):

“The other team drives nice cars too”

Not exactly the same for softball, but the point is still valid - the other team often has good/great players too. Certainly the case when we play Texas and OSU and will be the same when we get to post-season.

Stick/ball sports are games of “failure”. The best in baseball fail 60%-70% of the time, softball slightly better than that. The game is about failing slightly less often than your opponent.

[OUBeliever56A]

From looking at this stat, LOB, for several years now, I would say in general this is how it works.

Start with the team's OB%. That is the starting point.

A team's LOB% goes down the more successful stolen bases a team has.
......(This is an indication of the team's speed generally. I would say that the Sooners are as fast as most any team, but they do not steal much due to their power potential.)
A team's LOB% goes down if you have a higher batting average.
A team's LOB% goes down substantially with a higher Slugging%.
A team's LOB% goes down a little more based upon the # of HRs hit by the team.
The more errors a team's opponents have, a team's LOB% goes down generally.

The Sooners start with the one of the highest OB% in the country, if not the highest.
The Sooners steal a fair number of bases and is very fast as a team.
The Sooners have one of the highest BA, if not the highest in the country.
The Sooners have one of the highest Slug% in the country.
The Sooners are in the Top 3, I think, in HRs.
Since the Sooner put many more balls in play due to the very low strikeout rate they have, there will be more errors committed by their opponents.

It is no wonder why the Sooners LOB% is lower than most any other team.

[1KCSoonerFan]

That all makes sense, '56! Thank you for putting in terms that are easy to understand. All the indicators that positively influence the LOB% favor the Sooners.

It also makes sense that if the other team has only one base runner, and she scores, they have no runners left on base for a perfect LOB%...and probably a crappy record, too.

Boomer!