Time to Head to Stillwater === Can the Cowgirls Take a Game From the Sooners? Two???

[TropicalSooner]

Well Boys and Girls.....here we are: Showtime at the OK...errr....OSU Corral.
The series we've been waiting for.....and a lot of the Softball World also will have eyes on as well. Are we ready for them? Maybe I should ask are they ready for us after their play over the last couple of weeks. Granted that has been less than stellar. A lot in fact. But the one thing I've picked up over the short time I've been following Sooner Softball, is that no matter what, the Cowgirls will dang well be ready for us when we go to Stillwater. So the question is, can they take a game from the Sooners? Can they take two???

I've read where some posters wildly speculating that they're going to save Kilfoyl for the Championship series and for Regionals. No point in using her this weekend since we already have the Conference Title wrapped up.
Really???
I simply cannot imagine Kenny G not using every tool in his toolbox and do everything he can to take as many games from the Sooners as possible. Yes, the Regular Season is behind us and we have that wrapped up. And the Cowgirls are definitely going to be hosting a Regional. But there's more at stake here. The Cowgirls were on a 5 game losing streak before managing to take 2 out of 3 games from Tech down in Lubbock and tonight (Wed) they lost to North Texas 1-5.
If they get swept by us and lose out in the first round of the B12 Championship series, they will still host a Regional, but the optics will be awful and may put hosting a Super Regional at risk.

So what does OSU bring to the table?
Offense:
Overall their team offense numbers look pretty good. As of Apr 30th, the team hit for .330 ave, 89 doubles, 6 triples, and 44 HRs. their OB% is .420 and their SLG% is .505.
they have 6 starters over .300 led by Grad 2B Rachel Becker at .462 and a 7th starter at .294. Grad SS Kiley Naomi leads in HRs with 10 with two teammates at 9 each. When they do get on base, they can successfully run on you. They have 44 SBs out of 50 att.
Pitching:
Their pitching staff are anchored by R Sr Kelly Maxwell, 14-2, 1.47 era, 6 2Bs, 9 HRs, 55 BBs, and 180 SOs over 109.1 IP, and also by Sr. Lexi Kilfoyl, 12-4, 1.74 era, 7 2B, 1 3B, 5 HRs, 26 BBs, and 105 SOs over 104.2 IP. Jr Ivy Rosenberry and Fr Kyra Aycock are to two backup starters that have both seen over 35 innings and can come in to help. Soph Baile Runner with only 4 IP will probably not be a factor. I really don't see Kenny doing the Rope a dope pitching change thing since we have a series to work with. BUT, I imagine he will not hesitate to put in anybody he has to preserve a lead as a game progresses. Over all as a team, their era is 1.91 and have given up 109 BBs and 21 HRs. That's not very many HRs.
Defense:
Not bad compared to what we have seen from other teams late this season.....they have made 28 errors, but their fld % is a decent .981.

Now.....what has happened to them recently??
Here is where things get interesting.
The OSU offense has appeared to have crashed over the last 9-10 games or so. A listing of those results have been posted by White River in the "Other Games" thread. Rather than me duplicating, here is the link:
viewtopic.php?t=5380&sid=b20727feebe8f4 ... 21a474b44a
Another poster on another site altogether went a step further. He compared the last 10 games of OU with the last 10 games of OSU and included the RPI of teams we both played against. The gist of his findings are:
OU is 10-0 with an average score of 7.5 runs to 0.4 runs. The average RPI of their last 10 opponents is 46.0
Oklahoma State is 4-6 with an average score of 3.6 runs to 2.4 runs. The average RPI of their last 10 opponents is 45.6
This did not include the loss that the cowgirls took last night against the Mean Green.
What this tells me is that over very similar competition, OU is scoring 7.5 runs a game to OSU's 3.6. And OU is limiting opponents to only .4 runs a game to OSU limiting opponnts to 2.4.
And yet another poster commented that he heard Nicole Mendez say (on a podcast or radio show??) that "OU and OSU's offenses are going through similar things, except OU has better pitching and more power so they pull through these types of games while OSU loses them."
So to me, it appears like our series and the Championship series (with whoever we play) is really boiling down to pitching. We know our pitching staff is solid, but what does the Cowgirls staff look like?
Boils down to Maxwell and Kilfoyl.
Maxwell we all know and love. We've seen her. A lot. Here is how she has done against the Sooners:
Year...IP....H....R....ER....BB....SO....WP....AB....BF....FO....GO....NP
2021 1.0---2----2----2------2------1-------0-----5------7-----2------0------36
2021 5.1---9----5----5------4------7-------0----24-----28----5------3-----118
2022 5.0---2----5----4------2------3-------0----17-----22----8------3------90
2022 6.0---6----7----4------6------4-------1----25-----31----7------6-----138
2022 3.0---4----2----1------0------1-------1----14-----14----5------3------51
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
total 20.1--23--21---16----14-----16-------2---85-----102--27----15-----433

So on average, per game appearance that we have seen her, we are averaging 4.6 hits, 4.2 runs, 3.2 ER, getting 2.8 walks, and striking out 3.2 times per game appearance we see her.
This year, it has been noted that her defense, especially her infield defense has been letting her down, contributing to the recent streak of losses.

Kilfoyl---we've never seen her but she has never seen us. Therefore, I've kind of flipped my original thinking that Maxwell starts Fri an Sun and Kilfoyl starts Sat. to now I think we'll see Kilfoyl Friday, Maxwell Saturday, and Kilfoyl Sunday(depending on how Friday goes.)

We need to maintain our high quality defense we have played with recently and let our pitching take over and return to scoreless innings. if we can get back to shutout mode, then we won't need a lot of runs to sweep the cowgirls.

Boomer!

[portalball]

I think they win one, maybe two. I can see Storako getting pulled early

[TN Sooner]

Excellent - this means we’ll win all three.

Past commentary:

2-19. “Jordy is not our ace”
2-22. “OU is overrated”
2-26. “I don’t think OU is ready for ucla”
4-11. “I will not be surprised if lsu wins”
4-24. “I think ucla is the better team.

Keep trying, perhaps you’ll be right soon.

[portalball]

Do you know they are playing three games?

[inconnu]

Excellent - this means we’ll win all three.

Past commentary:

2-19. “Jordy is not our ace”
2-22. “OU is overrated”
2-26. “I don’t think OU is ready for ucla”
4-11. “I will not be surprised if lsu wins”
4-24. “I think ucla is the better team.

Keep trying, perhaps you’ll be right soon.

portalball be aggy?...or, whorn?

[TN Sooner]

Do you know they are playing three games?

I’ll be here. Keep trying, eventually you might be right.

[TN Sooner]

Just checking in…

[portalball]

I said one maybe two games..I will stick to it until the end of the series

[TN Sooner]

[portalball]

Okay, I was wrong