Sooner Softball in the WCWS on Thursday - Thoughts about the Day

[OUBeliever56A]

The Oklahoma Sooners (54-2) play at 1:30 tomorrow against the Northwestern Wildcats (45-11). Much has been made about Danielle Williamson, the Lefty Pitcher for NW'ern and how much she has pitched in the post-season and season for NW'ern (241 innings with a 1.86 ERA and 323 Ks. There has also been quite a lot speculated and thought about the availability of Jordyn Bahl in the WCWS as she tries to recover from her forearm injury. OU's duo of Trautwein and May have pitched very well in the Regionals and Super-Regionals without Bahl also. They have given up 3 runs in 28.1 innings in that time for a 0.75 ERA.

I have tried to think of something that could be the key for the game against Northwestern but I am at a loss for something. Here is what I think though.

At this point in the season, the teams are what they are. The can over-perform some and they can under-perform some but they will be a range around the seasonal numbers and play. But I think the Sooners have a wider margin of error that will allow them to be successful. Here is what I mean.

OU scores 9.2 runs/game - NW scores 6.7 runs/game.
OU allows 0.86 runs/game - NW allows 3.1 runs/game.
When you look simply at those offensive numbers, the Sooners can still win if NW plays to 100% of their numbers even if OU plays to 80% of their numbers. If OU over-performs by 20% in the game, NW has to double their offense to win.

When you look at the the runs both teams allow, the Sooners can literally allow 3-times their season average and still be lower than NW. The Sooners have allowed more than 3 runs in ONLY 4 games this year. They have only allowed more than 4 runs ONCE this season.

The Sooners hit .369 with a Total Average of 1.207. - NW hits .304 with a Total Average of 0.906.
The Sooners allow a BAA of .139 and a Total Average Against of 0.417 - NW allows a BAA of .224 and TAA of 0.678.
The two sets of numbers indicating offensive production and opposition offensive production indicates that the Sooners have a wide margin of cushion over Northwestern.

I think the key to the Sooner offensive production is the middle of the Sooner batting order from 5th to 8th (Brito, Elam/Hansen, Snow and Johns). If they have a good day and the Sooners do not leave runners on base, the Sooners should be victorious. If Trautwein or May pitch as well as they have and if they get help from Bahl when and if she pitches, the Sooners will do well if they avoid a big hit by Lewis, Rudd, Cuchran or Cady/Nelson during the game.

I trust the Sooners will perform close to their season numbers the rest of the way. Tomorrow that should be enough to secure the win over Northwestern.

Boomer Sooner!