Big 12 Softball Bedlam Series: Sooner Host OSU on Fri, Sat, Sun

[OUBeliever56A]

First off, I wonder if the weather and the TV broadcasts will cooperate with the games and their importance.

• Friday's game is scheduled for a 6:30 PM start is a national broadcast on FS1. Friday night has a 41% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

• Saturday's game is scheduled for a Noon start and is a national broadcast on ESPN. Saturday during the day has a 59% chance of showers and thunderstorms. The evening weather looks to be worse.

• Sunday's game is scheduled for a 3 PM start and is a national broadcast on ESPN2. Sunday during the day has a 71% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

I have a concern that the national broadcasts on FS1 and the ESPN crew will cause games to be played in 'not ideal' weather because they can be inflexible and want their time slot filled by a Bedlam game. It looks like a tough weekend to get three games played without a rescheduled game to me. Friday during the day up until about 6 PM looks like the best time frame to get in games.

Texas plays at Texas Tech and the weather there does not look much different than in Norman. So it may be tough to get both series in this weekend. All of these games are on ESPN+ so there is no national pressure to get games played at any specific time.

Now to the games. The intrigue will be about the Big 12 regular season title. OU at 21-3 leads the way in first place. Texas is second with a 20-4 record and Oklahoma State is in third with a 19-5 record.

As we all probably know, Texas owns the tie-breaker against OU due to their 2-1 series 4 weekends ago. As to the chances for Texas Tech to upset Texas in a game, they are not good but on any given day it can happen. If Tech wins one game this weekend it would be an upset of noteworthy status. It would take a couple of the Texas pitchers having an off-day while a Tech pitcher has a very good on-day for it to happen. With that said, the Sooners do likely need to sweep the series to win the Big 12 Regular Season Title.

As to the match-up between OU and OSU. The pitchers will probably set the stage for the 3-games. The first two games will probably produce match ups Kilfoyl and Maxwell and then probably Rosenberry for OSU and Deal or May for OU.

Those match-ups look like this:
• Kilfoyl (19-3, 18 GS, 1.16 ERA, 132.1 IP) vs Maxwell (16-1, 16 GS, 1.66 ERA, 101.0 IP)
• Rosenberry (13-3, 13 GS, 1.60 ERA, 91.2 IP) vs Deal (11-1, 3 GS, 1.00 ERA, 63.0 IP) or May (12-1, 16 GS, 2.52 ERA, 64.0 IP)

I looked a little deeper into Kilfoyl’s stats and starts. Here is what I found. The week of the Texas series she also pitched a bit against North Texas. In that week she pitched 16.0 IP, gave up 11 hits and 0 runs with 3 walks and 14 Ks. Against Texas she threw 14.0 (2 CGs) allowing 9 hits, 9 runs with 2 walks and 11 Ks. She was on fire that week. Her two CG wins were the difference in the Texas-OSU series.

Then, I looked at the rest of her games in Big 12 play. In the other 7 conference series, she has pitched 74.0 IP with (2 games in each series) and allowed 49 hits in those innings and allowed 20 runs and 17 earned runs with 14 walks and 56 Ks. In those 7 series, she has allowed 7 doubles and 6 HRs. Those are good stats and result in a 1.61 ERA for her in those games outside of the Texas series. She is 15-1 in the big 12 conference games with her loss coming to Iowa State. But they are not statistics that are invincible.

Speaking of not being invincible, against Oklahoma, Kilfoyl in 2023, her only time to face Oklahoma, she pitched 8.2 IP giving up 11 hits, 7 runs, 5 earned runs, 7 walks, 5 Ks and 3 doubles and 1 HR. That is a 4.04 ERA.

In keeping with that theme, Ivy Rosenberry and Kyra Aycock have gotten roughed up by Oklahoma also. I include Aycock because she will likely pitch in relief in the series or could start game #2 instead of Rosenberry. Combined, the two of them have pitched 8.1 IP, allowing 9 hits, 4 runs, 4 walks, 1 HB, 0 Ks and 3 doubles. That equals a 3.36 ERA.

While OSUs pitching has performed well against OU the last two years, it has been something that was able to be overcome by OU hitters and offense. As the Sooners won all three games in 2023 and outscored the Cowgirls 17-6. As the Sooners won 3 of 4 in 2022, the Sooners outscored Cowgirls 21- 8 in the four games.

BTW, The starts for OU went like this.

• 22) -> Bahl (W), Trautwein (W), May - In this game, Trautwein got the W in relief and May picked up a Save as she returned to the circle. Then May a second time, Trautwein picked up the Loss.

• In 23) -> Bahl (W), May - With Deal picking up the W in relief, Storako (W).

For Oklahoma in 2024, I expect Maxwell to start the first game against Kilfoyl as I noted above. It is true that many of the Cowgirls are familiar with Maxwell from hitting off her in practice for a year or maybe two. A few of the new Cowgirl hitters are unfamiliar with Maxwell, however. Maxwell had been throwing pretty well until the UCF series where she did get two wins, by the way, in 10.2 IP and allowed 3 runs for a 2.53 ERA. Maxwell with her 2024 ERA of 1.66 is a different pitcher than the one that pitched at OSU with a couple improved pitches and maybe there is a new one as well.

I do not know who will start game #2 for sure, but it may well be Kierston Deal based upon her last 5 starts where she has given up just 1 run. It could be Nicole May, who has historically pitched well against OSU. Against OSU, May has thrown 27.0 IP, allowing 19 hits, 8 runs, 8 walks and 14 Ks for a 2.07 ERA. Remember that the Cowgirls have been a Top 5-8 team across those the last 3 years plus this year.

If either team must go beyond their Top 3 pitchers listed above because of a need, that team is behind the eight-ball so to speak. Katie Kutz would be the 4th pitcher for OSU. She has a 3.69 ERA in 24.2 IP in 2024. For OU, there is Karlie Keeney, Paytn Monticelli and SJ Geurin. I think each of them could be effective in relief in short outings if needed. The potential added depth by the Sooners staff may be a difference maker in the series.

As staffs, here are the stat lines for both teams:

• Oklahoma --> 1.66 ERA, 300.0 IP, 198 hits, 79 runs, 71 earned runs (8 unearned), 93 walks, 27 HB and 292 Ks. They have given up 29 doubles, 1 triple and 27 HRs.

• Important splits are: 1.06 H/W/HB per IP, 1.43 All Bases per IP, 0.973 Ks per IP and 21 shutouts.

Oklahoma State --> 1.92 ERA, 320.2 IP, 242 hits, 110 runs, 88 earned runs (22 unearned), 97 walks, 18 HB and 257 Ks. They have given up 34 doubles, 2 triples and 24 HRs.
Important splits are: 1.11 H/W/HB per IP, 1.46 All Bases per IP, 0.802 Ks per IP and 13 shutouts.

The first game of the series with Kilfoyl, the transfer into the Cowgirl program, facing Kelly Maxwell, the transfer away from the Cowgirl program and welcomed with open arms to the Sooners, may well decide how the series goes if they can propel their team to a win. I am sure that FS1, if the weather cooperates, will make the most of this matchup and the transfer theme.

I firmly believe that Maxwell is a better, much more rested pitcher than the one that pitched the last couple of years against the Sooners. She is an improved pitcher in 2024. I think that Maxwell will outpitch Kilfoyl in game #1. I also think OU will have the better pitcher in game #2 in the circle.

That leaves game #3 to be determined after the first two games.

I will post more about the offense attacks and defenses in 2024 for both teams tomorrow.

Boomer Sooner!

[TN Sooner]

As we all probably know, Texas owns the tie-breaker against OU due to their 2-1 series 4 weekends ago.

While this is true for seeding in the post season tournament, it is not the tie-breaker for season title - there is no tie breaker - we tie Texas, we get a trophy (and so do they). One quick edit - in the event games get cancelled and not made up, tie breaker becomes winning percentage.

A recent example - 22-23 women’s basketball - we shared title with KSU despite being swept by them. Not so recent example, but same rule - circa 2012 (?), we lost to KSU in regular season football, but both finished 9-1 and both were considered champs.

I don’t like the rule, but we’ll put another trophy in the case if we tie Texas

[TropicalSooner]

As we all probably know, Texas owns the tie-breaker against OU due to their 2-1 series 4 weekends ago.

While this is true for seeding in the post season tournament, it is not the tie-breaker for season title - there is no tie breaker - we tie Texas, we get a trophy (and so do they). One quick edit - in the event games get cancelled and not made up, tie breaker becomes winning percentage.

A recent example - 22-23 women’s basketball - we shared title with KSU despite being swept by them. Not so recent example, but same rule - circa 2012 (?), we lost to KSU in regular season football, but both finished 9-1 and both were considered champs.

I don’t like the rule, but we’ll put another trophy in the case if we tie Texas

But the trophy would say Co-Champions, not Champions.....yes?

[OUBeliever56A]

I guess I implied that Texas would win the Big 12. I did not mean to do that as I was only thinking seeding. My bad. I should have explained it better.

I would guess the trophy would say "Co".

[TN Sooner]

I think the trophy just says champion, but I don’t really know.

[OUBeliever56A]

Bedlam Softball: OSU at OU this Weekend – Offensive & Fielding Review

In this thread I addressed the pitching matchups and thoughts in a post earlier. This post will be about the offense and the fielding for both teams.

On offense, the two teams are similar but in reality, OSU is just a not as effective version of the Oklahoma offense. Both teams do about the same things but OSU just not as good as Oklahoma. Here is the batting lines for both teams:

• OU : .372 BA, .480 OB%, .673 Slug%, 8.35 Runs/G, 80 doubles, 7 triples, 95 HRs, 56 steals in 66 attempts.

• OSU: .313 BA, .393 OB%, .556 Slug%, 6.26 Runs/G, 67 doubles, 11 triples, 74 HRs, 45 steals in 55 attempts.

For Oklahoma, 8 of 9 Sooner starters hit between .441 and .356. The remaining starter hit .273. All nine of the Sooner starters have an OB% of greater than .449. Only one Sooner starter has a Slug% of less than .644.

For Oklahoma State, 4 of the Cowgirl starters hit between .380 and .331. Three other starters hit between .312 and .196. The remaining two starters are a combination of maybe four or five players that hit between .333 and .245. For OSU, there are no full-time starters with an OB% of over .430 which means that all of them have an OB% less than the lowest Sooner that starts. Only two Cowgirls have Slug% of over .575. Two have less than a .504 Slug%.

The Oklahoma offense is led by six (6) players; Brito (1.369 OPS), Jennings (1.316), Coleman (1.265), Sanders (1.239), Parker (1.219) and Hansen (1.200). The remaining 3 starters, Pickering (1.166), Torres (1.093) and Boone (.984) are notable as well.

The OSU offense is led by four (4) players; Wang (C) 1.173 OPS, Godwin (1B) 1.013, Wark (DP) 1.010 and Davis 2B (1.004). Four more Cowgirls have OPS values between .995 down to .931. The final Cowgirl has an OPS of .675.

Ella Parker is the primary base stealer for OU while Edwards and Warsop (non-starter) lead OSU.

The key for Oklahoma in the Bedlam series is two-fold. 1) Do not let the two primary players that have enough offense to defeat the Sooners if they have a big game. Wang and Godwin are strong hitters and have to be managed in the three-game series. They are the two primary power hitters for OSU also. 2) Do not let a trio of other players step up to have big series. I would say these are Davis, Edwards and Wark. All three of these players can affect a game at any time with a big game. The Cowgirl lineup is a list of several not-to-familiar names to Sooner fans as the Cowgirls have rebuilt their team after the 2023 season. Many of them have not played in Bedlam. How they handle that and the 4200+ Sooner fans in Love’s Field this weekend is a key.

Another key for the Sooners is just go out and have three good games offensively. On average, the Sooners have 15 baserunners a game with 9.5 hits and 5.8 walks/HBP. They have 3.9 EBH out of those 9.5 hits. If the Sooners go out and score 7 runs a game, I do not think the Cowgirls can produce that much offense to keep up with the Sooners. Against Kilfoyl, the key will be for the Sooners to not swing at those low pitches that are balls. Like they have with other sinker ball pitchers, the Sooners need to take advantage of pitches that are up in the zone and don’t swing at those low pitches that are balls or outside and low. Those are generally not going to be hits. The sooners have done this before and can do the same thing again. The umpires strike zone will be a key in this effort for OU and for Kilfoyl.

The gap in the two teams offense favors Oklahoma quite a bit. The offensive gap is much bigger than the pitching gap between the two teams. The key to victory this weekend is probably through the offense with the Sooners doing what they do best. Hit the ball and hit the ball with power. Having a 2-1 ration in free base compared to strikeouts also will help greatly.

On defense and fielding the two teams are really very close in fielding % and errors. I think OSU has what could be their best defensive team in a while. But having said that, the Cowgirls seem to have ‘folded’ a bit when they make an error. The Cowgirls have allowed 22 unearned runs on their 29 errors. That is a fairly high ratio. Oklahoma on the other hand, has allowed only 8 unearned runs on their 23 errors. So when OSU makes an error, OU needs to get a big hit after to continue that negative trend for OSU.

I have been watching the 3rd party ticket sales and prices for the seires and there are surprisingly more tickets than I expected still for sale. You can get a ticket in most of the sections or SRO for all three games. Some behind home plate go for as much as $300 a seat for a game. I think there will be more orange in Love’s Field than what I would hope but I guess this a capitalistic society we live in and people can choose to sell their tickets.

If the Sooners start early and score often in the first game, the series will be controlled quickly, and the home field advantage will grow based upon that success. The crowd has willed the Sooners to many victories in Marita Hynes with less than half of the fans that Love’s Field hold.

I hope the Sooner fans make their presence felt this weekend and help propel the Sooners to a series sweep and a Big 12 Regular Season Championship.

Boomer Sooner!

[Brisket]

Love your previews 56! I'm sure it takes a lot of time to put that all together. Thank you for your insights.

I know the stats look to be in OU's favor, but I'm not as optimistic as you are. We have definitely been spoiled for the past several years with historic levels of dominance & elite performances, but something has just seemed "off" about this team most of the year. Maybe the stats tell a different story, but it sure seems like the offense has multi-inning stretches of silence most games. I've said before that I just don't trust Maxwell. I've seen her struggle in pressure situations too many times. Those were mostly against those elite OU squads, so that may not be a totally fair sample size. And Nicole May is having her worst statistical season since her freshman year.

I hope they can put it all together this weekend to sweep the Cowgirls & build some momentum going into the Big 12 tournament & Regionals.

[oufanforever]

Love your previews 56! I'm sure it takes a lot of time to put that all together. Thank you for your insights.

I know the stats look to be in OU's favor, but I'm not as optimistic as you are. We have definitely been spoiled for the past several years with historic levels of dominance & elite performances, but something has just seemed "off" about this team most of the year. Maybe the stats tell a different story, but it sure seems like the offense has multi-inning stretches of silence most games. I've said before that I just don't trust Maxwell. I've seen her struggle in pressure situations too many times. Those were mostly against those elite OU squads, so that may not be a totally fair sample size. And Nicole May is having her worst statistical season since her freshman year.

I hope they can put it all together this weekend to sweep the Cowgirls & build some momentum going into the Big 12 tournament & Regionals.

I think the amount of "clutchness" displayed by the last few teams are abnormal and should not be expected to continue at all despite having the same players. But it also what makes those team belong in the discussion of greatest team of all time. This year's team is just a normal good softball team that win some and lose some close games and will have a bad performance once in a while.

[inconnu]

Not to worry...it's Spigot ON time!

[BudaSooner]

I think the amount of "clutchness" displayed by the last few teams are abnormal and should not be expected to continue at all despite having the same players. But it also what makes those team belong in the discussion of greatest team of all time. This year's team is just a normal good softball team that win some and lose some close games and will have a bad performance once in a while.

The middle game in the BYU series, where we lost 9-4 and committed 2 errors comes to mind. It was also partly on the coach's decision to pull Deal in the 4th inning, IMO. Kierston wasn't having a particularly good outing by her standards, but I'd have rather seen Deal try to "deal" with it than to bring in Keeney, who really hasn't exactly been the brightest light in our bullpen.
Bottom line, we stunk it up that night against the coogs.

[SoonerGirl1201]

Love your previews 56! I'm sure it takes a lot of time to put that all together. Thank you for your insights.

I know the stats look to be in OU's favor, but I'm not as optimistic as you are. We have definitely been spoiled for the past several years with historic levels of dominance & elite performances, but something has just seemed "off" about this team most of the year. Maybe the stats tell a different story, but it sure seems like the offense has multi-inning stretches of silence most games. I've said before that I just don't trust Maxwell. I've seen her struggle in pressure situations too many times. Those were mostly against those elite OU squads, so that may not be a totally fair sample size. And Nicole May is having her worst statistical season since her freshman year.

I hope they can put it all together this weekend to sweep the Cowgirls & build some momentum going into the Big 12 tournament & Regionals.

I think the amount of "clutchness" displayed by the last few teams are abnormal and should not be expected to continue at all despite having the same players. But it also what makes those team belong in the discussion of greatest team of all time. This year's team is just a normal good softball team that win some and lose some close games and will have a bad performance once in a while.

I totally agree with this oufanforever. The last 2 teams were UNBELIEVABLE when it came to coming through in the clutch moments. I have never seen anything like it from any softball team. They totally belong in the discussion of best teams ever. I would put last years team #1 and 2022 #2 in all total seriousness for that very reason. Even some of the other great teams I have watched (even non OU) over the past 20 years would let up and lose a championship series game and have to come back and win the deciding game 3 - or maybe have a season record with 6-10 losses and be considered great.

That is the only thing that is really missing from this years team. That "EVERY MOMENT" clutch come through. I posted it somewhere else, but I think this team is probably the 3rd-4th best out of our 7 NC teams (with 23 #1 and 22 #2 and maybe a tie with 21's team - although I think we have better pitching this year than then). We are just majorly spoiled and don't recognize that what we have seen the past 2 years has been exceptional and extremely amazing play. I still totally believe this year's team can win it all and may very well be the best team in the country. The question is - will they be clutch when they ABSOLUTELY have to be or will another team?

[123gone]

Just the way it is...All good things come to a end sooner or later