OU Softball Offensive Softball Outlook - Way To Early Thoughts!

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OUBeliever56A
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OU Softball Offensive Softball Outlook - Way To Early Thoughts!

Post by OUBeliever56A »

On another board and thread, a very good poster ' tulotto' posted this about the 2023 Sooner Softball offense:

- Offense can't match the past two years, but will likely still be tops in the nation.
- Pitching and Defense will be just as good or better.
- Fewer run rules will help spread some innings around to a deep staff.

I think that is a popular thought about the potential offensive drop-off in 2023. But - here are some interesting numbers.

- - - -

If you will allow the 'assumption' that Jennings, Lyons, Brito, J Coleman and Boone will reproduce their 2022 offensive numbers. That takes care of 5 position, 2B, SS. CF. LF and RF. I think that 'assumption' is fairly safe. I wonder if everyone else agrees with that thought.

That leaves four positions for the Sooners. In 2022, those four positions were filled by Alo, Snow, Johns, Elam and Hansen. So I totalled the stats for those 5 players/4 positions.
The stats for those 5 players were: 670 AB, 242 Hits, 42 doubles, 1 triple, 73 HRs, 505 TBs, 140 W/HB - .361 BA - .472 OB% - .754 Slug%

Who will fill those four positions for 2023?

Hansen will be back at catcher. I will use her 2021 stats for this look at 2023. I think that is a safe assumption.
I will use Green as the full time DP. I will use her 2019 stats for this look in 2023. I think since that is her last full season, I think that is safe.
I will use Torres as the full time 3B. I will use her 2022 stats from Arizona State for a look at 2023. I think that is safe.
The stats for those 3 players are: 522 AB, 198 Hits, 30 doubles, 2 triples, 57 HRs, 403 TBs, 65 w/HB - .379 BA - .448 OB% - .772 Slug%

That means the new 1B will have to produce these stats to total the same production as the players 5 players from the 2022 offense.

148 AB, 44 Hits, 12 doubles, -1 triple, 16 HRs, 102 TBs, 75 W/HB - .297 BA - .534 OB% - .689 Slug%
- - -

Call me optimistic if you will, but from what I have seen of incoming freshman Jocelyn Erickson, she will will likely reach numbers that equal those above except probably the OB%. I think she will hit higher than .297 though and replicate the HRs and maybe the doubles. She will also be just as good if not better than Snow at 1B.

Let's say that the Sooners go a different direction with Torres and play her at 1B and then Brito plays 3B. That means that T Coleman, Quincee Lilio and Hannah Coor will split time in LF and that they will have to deliver the cumulative numbers required above in bold. I think they have a good shot at doing that as well. Not as good a shot as Erickson has, but a shot at doing so.

Perhaps it could even be a little of both scenarios with Torres splitting time at 3B and 1B and Erickson playing 1B and trio mentioned above playing LF.

In summary, the offense for 2023 will likely be just as good as the team in 2022. I know that is rare territory for team offenses, but I think this short, realistic review shows how possible it is.

What do you think?

Boomer Sooner!
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Post by TropicalSooner »

Thanks for your early observations for the upcoming '23 season. Well thought out---and we apprec your research and all the math involved!
I am becoming increasingly hopeful about our incoming Freshman class and also how well our current freshmen class is doing playing summer ball in Florida.
I've read that T Coleman is catching for Alex Storako this summer, and Quincee Lilio leads the entire league in BA (0.667) and OBP (0.750). I don't have a read on how well Hannah Coor is doing though.
Have you seen if Grace Green Mead is for sure coming back next year? That would be the only hiccup I can think of right now.
Looks like you have put together a good argument for next year's team to have the potential to come close or match this year's offensive output. With the new full time players we will have taking over for the graduates, it may take a few weeks to get the chemistry down like we had last year, but I agree that we should be able to have enough offensive power to help our awesome pitching staff stay loose and relaxed.
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Post by The Far Journey »

I like the assessments here. People have said on air like Beth Mowins that we won''t be able to replace Alo, but of course you can never replace Jocey or any of the other super seniors . You put together another team with its own character and talents. I think Sophia Nugent will have an opportunity to make an impact. With it's loaded pitching, the great defense, and the offense as mentioned in the earlier posts, next year's team will have the potential to be just as dominant as this past season. We shall see. Can't wait.
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Post by AllSooner »

I'm no statistician, but in my "youthful" mind, the Sooners left a lot more runners stranded than they wanted. Is there any stats on "runners left stranded"? Is it possible to have a lower team BA and score more runs, IF the hits came more strategically, than often? This stat would only matter in close games, so when the wins are "mercy wins", like this last season, this stat is completely useless.
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Post by TropicalSooner »

AllSooner wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:55 am I'm no statistician, but in my "youthful" mind, the Sooners left a lot more runners stranded than they wanted. Is there any stats on "runners left stranded"? Is it possible to have a lower team BA and score more runs, IF the hits came more strategically, than often? This stat would only matter in close games, so when the wins are "mercy wins", like this last season, this stat is completely useless.
AllSooner....you are right to be concerned about the LOB's (runners left on Base) item. It bothered me too last year.....and yes, in Mercy wins, it doesn't matter as much but it's still troublesome because it is there. And you can't have that in the close games (see Baylor, Utah, UAB, etc) or it can bite you in the you know where. I'm sure '56 has the stats on this item and can comment much better than I. It would be nice to be more "stretegic" about resolving this issue, but I think the intensity of the players actually involved in the live game can provide some of the undesirable results regarding LOB's. When we are not scoriing a lot of runs, it seems like we have more of a tendency later in the game for everybody to swing for the fence, but I'm not sure about that---it may have just seemed that way to me. I'm sure others here have their observations and opinions as well.....but it is a good point.
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

AllSooner wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:55 am I'm no statistician, but in my "youthful" mind, the Sooners left a lot more runners stranded than they wanted. Is there any stats on "runners left stranded"? Is it possible to have a lower team BA and score more runs, IF the hits came more strategically, than often? This stat would only matter in close games, so when the wins are "mercy wins", like this last season, this stat is completely useless.
Your thoughts about runners LOB are correct. Here are the numbers for the last 3 years.

2020 - OU LOB = 137 in 24 Games - Hits+Walks+HBP-CS = 285 base runners - % of runners LOB = 48.1%
2021 - OU LOB = 349 in 60 Games - Hits+Walks+HBP-CS = 959 base runners - % of runners LOB = 36.4% - 2021 was a very low %. I have always heard that if you re below 40% that it is great.
2020 - OU LOB = 332 in 62 Games - Hits+Walks+HBP-CS = 783 base runners - % of runners LOB = 42.4%

For OU's opponents the numbers are - 2020 = 67.6% LOB, 2021 = 64.7% LOB, 2022 = 80.1% LOB. - As you can see, the pitching did a great job in 2022 in keeping runners from scoring.
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Post by 71Sooner »

The number of LOBs concerns me as well. On the other hand, wouldn’t the Sooners’ high batting averages and number of walks result in a high number of runners on base lead to a high number of LOBs. Also, a number of outs were on hard hit balls just right at a fielder. I recently saw a YouTube video of JT discussing what metrics he looks for as success from his hitters. Hard hit balls even if resulting in an out are considered a win. Just wondering.
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Post by TropicalSooner »

71Sooner wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:40 am The number of LOBs concerns me as well. On the other hand, wouldn’t the Sooners’ high batting averages and number of walks result in a high number of runners on base lead to a high number of LOBs. Also, a number of outs were on hard hit balls just right at a fielder. I recently saw a YouTube video of JT discussing what metrics he looks for as success from his hitters. Hard hit balls even if resulting in an out are considered a win. Just wondering.
I'm glad you brought that up about hard hit balls. I hadn't thought about that, and I haven't seen the youtube video....but that makes some sense. If you're getting good "wood" on the ball and it's hard hit, that is a win against the pitcher. I guess it was just more "bad luck" that a lot of them were hit directly into a defender's glove, even in the outfield at times.
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Post by 71Sooner »

JT has several videos on YouTube which are interesting in his discussion of concepts he uses and how he works with hitters. In one he discusses how they make their adjustments. Maybe because I watched OU WCWS highlights on YouTube, one popped up. After watching that one several more showed up on my YouTube home page. If you search for JT Gasso, a number of the videos come up.
Also, there were a couple of short ones I saw of Patti miced up at practice.
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Post by BixSooner »

OUBeliever56A wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:23 am
AllSooner wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:55 am I'm no statistician, but in my "youthful" mind, the Sooners left a lot more runners stranded than they wanted. Is there any stats on "runners left stranded"? Is it possible to have a lower team BA and score more runs, IF the hits came more strategically, than often? This stat would only matter in close games, so when the wins are "mercy wins", like this last season, this stat is completely useless.
Your thoughts about runners LOB are correct. Here are the numbers for the last 3 years.

2020 - OU LOB = 137 in 24 Games - Hits+Walks+HBP-CS = 285 base runners - % of runners LOB = 48.1%
2021 - OU LOB = 349 in 60 Games - Hits+Walks+HBP-CS = 959 base runners - % of runners LOB = 36.4% - 2021 was a very low %. I have always heard that if you re below 40% that it is great.
2020 - OU LOB = 332 in 62 Games - Hits+Walks+HBP-CS = 783 base runners - % of runners LOB = 42.4%

For OU's opponents the numbers are - 2020 = 67.6% LOB, 2021 = 64.7% LOB, 2022 = 80.1% LOB. - As you can see, the pitching did a great job in 2022 in keeping runners from scoring.
I'm wondering if a better stat to look at would be the team batting average with RISP. I agree that those numbers seem high, but if you're leaving that many runners on base, it's also due to the team as a whole is getting on base. A lot. This team was the GOAT in softball, i'm thinking those numbers may go with the territory of a great hitting team.
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

Here are a couple of data points:

All from 2022:
Okla State - 53.2% runners LOB
Texas - 52.6% runners LOB
UCLA - 46.0 runners LOB
Florida - 51.6% runners LOB
Arkansas - 46.6% runners LOB

I think HRs and team speed have something to do with this. But from these numbers, I would say that the LOB% the last three years for the Sooners are very good. A team is above average if they are under 50%. Under 45% is very good. Under 40% is simply great as OU was in 2021.

As for 2-out hits, over a 60 game season I think that number tends to even out. But I do not know where to find those numbers either.
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