2022 Big 12 Conference Softball Forecast - EIS

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OUBeliever56A
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2022 Big 12 Conference Softball Forecast - EIS

Post by OUBeliever56A »

I. Conference Breakdown
The Big 12 is the smallest softball league among the Power 5s, sporting only seven teams. Those teams include Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech.

Oklahoma was the cream of the crop nationally last season, beginning the season with a 29-run slaughter of a victory and ending the year as the last team standing and hoisting the national championship trophy. Three Big 12 teams – Oklahoma State and Texas, in addition to the Sooners – hosted Regionals and both OU and OK State hosted Super Regionals. Iowa State broke a decades-long drought to return to the NCAA tournament and Baylor was the fifth and final Big 12 club to earn a selection into the 2021 NCAA tournament.

II. 2022 Award Predictions
Player of the Year: Jocelyn Alo, Oklahoma
Pitcher of the Year: Kelly Maxwell, Oklahoma State
Coach of the Year: Patty Gasso, Oklahoma
Conference Champions: Oklahoma Sooners

[My comment] Pitcher of the Year - Maxwell will be good for the Cowgirls but I think her selection overlooks several pitchers that could win the award. Trautwein, May and Bahl are capable of earning the award. Elish, also on the Cowgirls is as well. Newcomer to the Big 12, Dolcini for Texas could earn some recognition along with O'Leary.

III. Who to Watch
Kelly Maxwell, Oklahoma State — The Cowgirls added a pair of high-profile transfer pitchers this offseason, but Maxwell is the one who has been there and is still there in Stillwater. Far from an afterthought, Maxwell may hold the biggest key to the Cowgirls’ plans this season. She has proven to be reliable during her career to this point, and she should be a steadying force both for a now-full Cowgirl bullpen and also for an OK State team that seems poised to take the next step toward a championship.

Texas — It was a busy fall for Mike White’s club; after a couple of lower-profile transfer additions during the summers, the Longhorns made out like bandits in the portal in the fall, nabbing reigning Mountain West Pitcher of the Year Hailey Dolcini, Arizona transfer Isabella Dayton, and inter-conference transfer & former Baylor Bear Lou Gilbert. Dolcini and Gilbert were both unexpected and late entrants into the portal, and both should have major impacts right away for the Horns. Forget not that the Horns still have the likes of Shealyn O’Leary, Janae Jefferson, and Mary Iakopo in the fold, as well. This team could be White and Company’s best shot at a WCWS berth since their skipper got to the Forty Acres.

Mikayla Ramos, Iowa State — With their biggest offensive juggernaut from last season now departed, Iowa State needs some of their other returning role players to step up into even-larger roles, and that includes Ramos. She quietly had an emergence of her own at the plate last season, breaking a school record with 57 RBIs and batting .365 with thirteen home runs. Look for her to be an offensive weapon that the Cyclones depend on.

Texas Tech — After finally reaching the NCAA tournament in 2019, the Red Raiders struggled a bit but still opened the 2020 season with a solid record before the rug was pulled out from under everyone very abruptly. Last fall’s controversial happenings and ensuing coaching change saw a fractured locker room that carried into the 2021 season and ultimately saw a lot of roster turnover this summer. A bevy of transfers came into the program, including former Nevada pitcher Kendall Fritz and ex-Oklahoma Sooner hurler Olivia Rains. The Red Raiders could make a run at 5th in the conference and a firm spot on the NCAA tournament bubble; the pieces are there.

IV. Coaching Moves
The Big 12 saw very little turnover on the coaching front this summer. No head coaching or full-time assistant coaching positions changed hands, though three schools did see new blood in their volunteer assistant roles. Iowa State added former Carroll College head coach Aaron Jackson as volunteer assistant; Oklahoma hired former Texas A&M-Corpus Christi head coach Kristen Zaleski as their volunteer assistant; and Texas added Nicole Parnell as their own volunteer assistant.

V. Storylines to Watch
> All three of the Big 12’s “top tier” teams have multiple new faces in the circle – Oklahoma with Hope Trautwein and freshman Jordy Bahl, Oklahoma State with Miranda Elish and Morgan Day, and Texas with Hailey Dolcini, Estelle Czech, and Logan Hulon. This is a very different pitching conference than it was a year ago.

> Six of the Big 12’s seven teams have reached the postseason since 2019. Kansas is the lone exception.

> Oklahoma returns almost their entire batting order from last season. Nicole Mendes is the sole departure.

> Miranda Elish will face her old Texas team for the first – and only – time as a Cowgirl in Stillwater in late April.
[My comment] In a rare oddity, Elish actually pitched against Oklahoma State and Texas in 2017 when she was a freshman at Oregon. She earned the Win in both games.

> Jocelyn Alo currently boasts 88 career home runs and is only 7 longballs away from tying and 8 dingers away from breaking Lauren Chamberlain’s all-time record.

VI. Wheeling and Dealing
Transfers Out:
Brittany Jackson OF, Kansas –> NC State;
Morgyn Wynne OF/1B, Kansas –> Oklahoma State;

Taylor Ellsworth C/OF, Texas –> Arkansas;
Ryleigh White RHP, Texas –> Tennessee;
Miranda Elish RHP/1B, Texas –> Oklahoma State;

Gabby Sprang RHP, Oklahoma State –> Purdue;

Lou Gilbert OF, Baylor –> Texas

(My additions)
Olivia Rains, OU -> Texas Tech
Brooke Vestal, OU -> Ole Miss
Kinsey Koeltzow, OU -> Grand Canyon University
Zaida Puni, OU -> Tennessee
Paige Knight, OU -> NEO
Raylee Pogue, OU -> Retired


Transfers In:
Hope Trautwein RHP, North Texas –> Oklahoma;
Alyssa Brito SS, Oregon –> Oklahoma;

Morgyn Wynne OF/1B, Kansas –> Oklahoma State;
Morgan Day RHP, Illinois State –> Oklahoma State;
Miranda Elish RHP/1B, Texas –> Oklahoma State;
[My addition} - Julie Cottrill C, Florida -> Oklahoma State;

Bella Dayton OF, Arizona –> Texas;
Estelle Czech LHP, NC State –> Texas;
Hailey Dolcini RHP, Fresno State –> Texas;
Lou Gilbert OF, Baylor –> Texas;

Rachel Hertenberger RHP, Houston –> Baylor;
McKenzie Wilson OF, Fresno State –> Baylor;

Kendall Fritz RHP, Nevada –> Texas Tech;
Molly Grumbo C, Loyola Marymount –> Texas Tech;
Olivia Rains RHP, Oklahoma –> Texas Tech

VII. Burning Questions
* Which team will gain the most benefit from their transfer additions?
[My comments] Probably Okla State and Texas but Texas Tech and Oklahoma will be helped significantly also.

* Will Oklahoma State and/or Texas be able to give Oklahoma a true challenge for the conference crown?
(My Comment) - Texas is definitely going to be better due to Dolcini. But the big question about them to me is their defense at SS and OF. OSU is probably better than they were in 2021. They will be different in the circle. It depends on Elish regaining her form. OSU's everyday lineup could be better than ever. If the 'new look' Sooner pitching staff meets my expectations, the Sooners will once again the Big 12 Champion for the 10th straight season.

VIII. Team by Team
Baylor – The late departure of Lou Gilbert leaves a hole that will be hard to fill. The Bears brought in a nice handful of transfers and overhauled much of their pitching rotation this offseason. They returned to the NCAA tournament last season after a year “away”, but start the season as a tournament bubble team for 2022. Name to Know: Emily Hott
[My comment] - Baylor's pitching staff is a completely rebuild effort. I will be tough for the staff to hold up. Could Kacie West (FR) be the #1?

Iowa State – Sami Williams was a big part of ISU’s breakthrough season last year, but wasn’t alone in helping the Cyclones get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time this century. There is still pop and production in the lineup, and Iowa State also showed last year that they won’t back down from a fight, even against top teams. Name to Know: Ellie Spelhaug
[My comment] - I do not know how the Cyclones replace Sami Williams offense or defense. She was a great SS.

Kansas – Don’t let last-place fool you; the Jayhawks have talent. Getting over the hump of being in the conference cellar is a tough thing to do, though. A hearty non-conference schedule should give a showing early-on of what exactly the Jayhawks are made of this year. Name to Know: Shelby Gayre
[My comment] - Kansas is rebuilding after key older players transferred after 2021. The team and the pitching will be very young.

Oklahoma – The favorites until someone actually knocks them out of that spot. The Sooners return almost their entire starting lineup from their championship season, boast a new-look pitching staff, and should see Jocelyn Alo break the all-time home run record this year. A lot of very positive things are still to come for the Sooners; they’re not done yet. Name to Know: Grace Lyons
[My comment] - Rylie Boone is a player to watch in 2022 replacing Mendes. Jordyn Bahl (FR RHP) will make a have a very good year as the #1 recruit for the Sooners.

Oklahoma State – A pair of WCWS appearances in two straight years have the Cowgirls trending upward with an even-higher trajectory. The Cowgirls once again loaded their roster with talent from the transfer portal, including Miranda Elish, who was a national Player of the Year contender the last time she took the circle in a college softball game. Name to Know: Kiley Naomi
[My comment] - The late transfer of Cottrill to the Cowgirls from Florida to play Catcher for the Cowgirls is an important move. Haley Busby can be very good also.

Texas – Late transfers will bolster Texas’ roster, but it could also take the new-look roster some time to gel. Texas has performed to realistic expectations over the last few years, but loaded rosters and a top-shelf brand set those expectations even higher. This year’s Longhorns team has the makings to be the best shot yet at a Mike White-led berth in OKC. Name to Know: Janae Jefferson
[My comment] - A trio of freshman (Cimusz (C/UT), Scott (3B/UT) and Simpson (RHP) could also get playing time in the field for the LongDucks. Dolcini GR SR RHP is a huge addition to the LongDucks pitching staff. As I said above, their defense has to improve for Texas to seriously challenge OU and OSU.

Texas Tech – A team of many identities over the last several years, it remains to be seen which Texas Tech we’ll see in 2022. This is Sami Ward’s first full year as head coach and, combined with new faces in the form of both transfers and freshmen, the Red Raiders could make incremental progress, could take a huge leap, or could land anywhere in between. Name to Know: Kendall Fritz
[My comment] - Tech has made many changes in their roster as the their new coach, Sami Ward, remakes the team. Personally, I hope Olivia Raines pitches well for the Red Raiders.

IX. Projected Standings
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Iowa State
Baylor
Texas Tech
Kansas

[My comment] - I would flip Texas Tech up to 4th over Iowa State and Baylor. The top 3 teams, OU, OSU and Texas could end up being in the Top 10 of the country, with OU and OSU being Top 5 or even 3 teams.
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Post by OU_Tom »

Thanks . There are a ton of transfers. I have to confess that I don't really recognize most of them; I guess that I have a lot of studying to do.

The one name that I do recognize is Miranda Elish. She was very impressive when OU played in Austin, TX in 2019. OU had to struggle to win the 2 games, I don't see how she isn't the ace on any staff (probably including OU).

I will take Tiare Jennings :ou: over Janae Jefferson :horns: .

My guess is OU, Texas and OSU will all be very good. It will be interesting to see if any of the other teams can hang with the top 3 teams.

Thanks once again for the awesome writeup.

OU_Tom studying portal data 👇 from OUBeliever
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

OU_Tom wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:30 pm
I will take Tiare Jennings :ou: over Janae Jefferson :horns: .
So will I, everyday and on Saturday and Sunday also. Tiare Jennings is going to be a generational player like Jocelyn Alo. Kinzie Hansen will be also.
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Post by inconnu »

OUBeliever56A wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:19 am
OU_Tom wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:30 pm
I will take Tiare Jennings :ou: over Janae Jefferson :horns: .
So will I, everyday and on Saturday and Sunday also. Tiare Jennings is going to be a generational player like Jocelyn Alo. Kinzie Hansen will be also.
I think Jayda Coleman will be too. I would like to see Coleman concentrate on regular at-bats, instead of the slapping.
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

inconnu wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:05 pm
OUBeliever56A wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:19 am
OU_Tom wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 7:30 pm
I will take Tiare Jennings :ou: over Janae Jefferson :horns: .
So will I, everyday and on Saturday and Sunday also. Tiare Jennings is going to be a generational player like Jocelyn Alo. Kinzie Hansen will be also.
I think Jayda Coleman will be too. I would like to see Coleman concentrate on regular at-bats, instead of the slapping.
I actually think Jayda will have better years in 2022, 23 and 24 than she had in 2021. Primarily in power and steals. If she does that she could be a generational players also.

Jennings and Hansen had such good years in 2021, it is difficult to predict they will have better years in 2022, 23 and 24. But they could have years very similar. They could both actually hit 100 HRs in the career. Chamberlain, Alo, Jennings and Hansen all with 95 or more HRs. Boomer Sooner BIG TIME!
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Post by TN Sooner »

Great analysis here - thanks for the detail.

Last year was so much fun to watch - I think “we” knew what we had but it took a while before the national folks and ESPN cartel caught on - remember the “untested or well rested” theme they were promoting? Questioning that we deserved #1 seed?

So many players had transcendent years last year, so I’m trying very hard to temper my own expectations, with limited success I’m afraid.

I think Jocelyn will appear somewhat mortal with HR totals (I’m picking 25 (which isn’t really mortal, is it?)), but her overall status as best hitter in the game will remain. I just think there will be more walks.

Tiare was the best hitter in the nation this side of Alo last year and I don’t think they changes much, but maybe production declines some.

I do think Jayda will “break out” and be a all-around superstar (defensive and offensive)

I would like to see Grace Lyons get more rest during the regular season - I think she wears down with her heart issues and needs more rest to avoid the late season fall-off she experienced last year (and a lesser degree in prior years). Maybe Brita subs in for the left side of the infield every 3-4 games? Maybe give Tiare some shortstop?

Sort of rambling here. I think Patti will be playing a lot of players and we’ll maybe scuffle a little bit (3-5 losses out of conference and 1-2 losses in conference), but wind up with a well tested and deep team come May. Big 12 title and national title. Let’s go!
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

TN Sooner wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:53 am Great analysis here - thanks for the detail.

Last year was so much fun to watch - I think “we” knew what we had but it took a while before the national folks and ESPN cartel caught on - remember the “untested or well rested” theme they were promoting? Questioning that we deserved #1 seed?

So many players had transcendent years last year, so I’m trying very hard to temper my own expectations, with limited success I’m afraid.

I think Jocelyn will appear somewhat mortal with HR totals (I’m picking 25 (which isn’t really mortal, is it?)), but her overall status as best hitter in the game will remain. I just think there will be more walks.

Tiare was the best hitter in the nation this side of Alo last year and I don’t think they changes much, but maybe production declines some.

I do think Jayda will “break out” and be a all-around superstar (defensive and offensive)

I would like to see Grace Lyons get more rest during the regular season - I think she wears down with her heart issues and needs more rest to avoid the late season fall-off she experienced last year (and a lesser degree in prior years). Maybe Brita subs in for the left side of the infield every 3-4 games? Maybe give Tiare some shortstop?

Sort of rambling here. I think Patti will be playing a lot of players and we’ll maybe scuffle a little bit (3-5 losses out of conference and 1-2 losses in conference), but wind up with a well tested and deep team come May. Big 12 title and national title. Let’s go!
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Post by OUBeliever56A »

TN Sooner wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:53 am Great analysis here - thanks for the detail.

Last year was so much fun to watch - I think “we” knew what we had but it took a while before the national folks and ESPN cartel caught on - remember the “untested or well rested” theme they were promoting? Questioning that we deserved #1 seed?

So many players had transcendent years last year, so I’m trying very hard to temper my own expectations, with limited success I’m afraid.

I think Jocelyn will appear somewhat mortal with HR totals (I’m picking 25 (which isn’t really mortal, is it?)), but her overall status as best hitter in the game will remain. I just think there will be more walks.

Tiare was the best hitter in the nation this side of Alo last year and I don’t think they changes much, but maybe production declines some.

I do think Jayda will “break out” and be a all-around superstar (defensive and offensive)

I would like to see Grace Lyons get more rest during the regular season - I think she wears down with her heart issues and needs more rest to avoid the late season fall-off she experienced last year (and a lesser degree in prior years). Maybe Brita subs in for the left side of the infield every 3-4 games? Maybe give Tiare some shortstop?

Sort of rambling here. I think Patti will be playing a lot of players and we’ll maybe scuffle a little bit (3-5 losses out of conference and 1-2 losses in conference), but wind up with a well tested and deep team come May. Big 12 title and national title. Let’s go!
You know, it is often forgotten that Grace Lyons wears a pacemaker. It is probably amazing she plays at all. I did think she wore down last season. You observation is very valid. I think they will try to give Lyons more rest in blow out games (which their will be many). I would guess Brito plays SS more than Jennings but both will probably play there. I think 16 players will play roles in 2022.
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