Final Thoughts about Todays Super Regional with the Noles

[TropicalSooner]

It really is all about the pitching.
Royalty is done for the year and although Coach Lonni keeps saying Reid is 'day to day', I really believe that is just a smoke screen.
I think Danley is the only pitcher they've got that's worth a rip, with m a y b e some spot relief by the other freshman, Goodin.

If we can come out of the chute and be first-pitch aggressive (assuming they're strikes) and just rip some singles and some doubles and carefully keep the baserunners moving and bringing in runs, I think we can unsettle the young freshman and then the game is ours. KellyMax was indeed well hit last year, but I think she is a different pitcher than she was then. If she can pitch shut-out ball to keep their speedsters off the basepaths, I think we can carry the momentum and finish strong.

But

If Danley can get out of the first two or three innings with 3 and outs or 4 and outs and with no or minimal damage, then she will start to get her confidence up and that could make for a very long afternoon with their bats supporting her.

I'm not saying flail at air balls or golf balls, but be aggressive at the plate and see ball - hit ball...then I think we will control our destiny.


Lastly, in this day and age of challenges, I just hope our runners are aware that everytime they leave the base they are going to be closely watched for leaving early. I just don't want a two out Grand slam HR taken off the board because a challenge by the opposing team shows we left first base a millisecond too early.

[OUBeliever56A]

I think it is all about pitching.

But that is about our pitching and defense also. The Sooner pitchers have to pitch well to a strong hitting Florida State lineup. As Coach Gasso said, they swing the bat well and they run the bases well. We will see them probably challenge Ms. Hansen on the basepaths. It has been so long since someone has done that, it seems. Hansen has allowed 24 steals in 36 attempts this season, which surprises me.

I will admit that I am a bit lost about who pitches these days. It seems to really be based upon matchups versus the opposing teams lineup. I was really confused by Coach Gasso's comments about May and Deal. She commented that Deal was an "up" pitcher and that May is a "down" pitcher and that since Oregon was an "up" ball hitting team, they went with May. Ok, I get that.

But, to me, I know I have not won 7 Natty's, May is an "up" ball pitcher and Deal is a "down" ball pitcher. At least that is how I describe them. By that I mean that May gets a majority of outs on fly balls after her strikeouts. she gets more out on fly balls than she does on ground balls. I think Deal is the opposite, she gets more ground ball outs after her strikeouts than she gets fly ball outs. To me, when Deal gives up runs, it usually on a pitch that is "up" but left in the zone. Maybe, the terms used by Coach Gasso is different than how I think of it based upon how she talked about the Oregon hitters. But she did say, that despite the "up"/"down" descriptions, if there would have been a second game on Sunday, that Deal would have started the game.

I think Maxwell is the best pitcher out of the three of them. She will start on Thursday night. If she does not, I will be very interested in understanding why that was not the choice. Then on Friday, I have no idea. I would say that most hitters are "up" ball hitters, especially power hitters. Based upon that, I would say May would always be the starter in a second game in a series due to her "down" ball style. Right? I would think not many teams would be primarily "down" ball hitters.

I also wonder how you pick a starting lineup based upon analytics when you know the other team will throw more than one pitcher in the game and when you do not know the order or the starter. It seems like 'smoke and mirrors" a bit to me. And, if your analytics is correct, the hitters would be having success. I wonder then about 2 spots in the lineup, with more wonderment about one of them.

Maybe I read too much into the words I hear or read.

Even with myself being a "stat guy", sometimes I am really lost this year and most of last year about the offensive lineup.

But I am still a great believer in the team. I think OU will hit FSU well this weekend. But I agree that the sooner they do that, the better for the Sooners.

I do feel better now, that I got some of that out. Sorry.....you had to read it.

Boomer Sooner!

[SoonerGirl1201]

I'm not smart enough to really get the "up" and "down" pitching. I'm guessing Patty and the analysts watch the FSU hitters and determine what type of pitchers they have the most success/least success against and that will be the way we start our pitchers (matching which of our pitchers can make them the least successful).

I agree, Kelly M is the best - she should always get game 1 - as I believe she is a good enough pitcher to cause almost all hitters to struggle regardless. I think May may be close to that as well when her pitches are on. If she is struggling with placement, that is where you really start looking at matching batters to pitchers. I think Deal is getting close to being good enough to pitch against anyone, but again - if she is not hitting her spots, you then focus on using her against specific batters, etc.

I'm hoping Kelly comes out today and shuts 'em down and we get a bunch of early runs to take the drama away early. Then if all goes as planned, tomorrow will be interesting to see who pitches. I have a feeling it will be a May start with a Deal relieve in inning 5 (assuming we have at least a 3 run lead).

[oufanforever]

Stats from SA:

Danley throws 36% Curve ball, 30% Drop ball, and 20% Changeup for her top 3 pitches
Gooden throws 39% Drop ball, 19% Curve ball, and 18% Screw ball for her top 3 pitches

These would suggest OU want to have a line up with Drop ball and curve ball hitters (e.g., Brito) higher in the order and rise ball hitters (maybe Hansen?) lower in the order.

OU hits .341 against LHP, .372 against RHP, .373 against Curve and .335 against Drop, so they probably will see more Drop balls in general. Despite the stats, Danley's changeup is her best pitch to my eyes, so OU has to be prepared for that.

Flip that:
Maxwell throws 33% Dropaball, 31% Fastball, and 13% Changeup, which is a big change from last year where she threw majority riseballs.
May throws 29% Changeup, 28% Riseball, and 18% Fastball
Deal throws 38% Curveball, 25% Riseball, and 18% Fastball
Keeney throws 47% Screwball, 31% Dropball, and 8% Curveball

FSU hits .321 against LHP, .330 against RHP, .363 against Riseball and .327 against Drop ball. So, Maxwell probably has the best match up, Followed by Keeney? May and Deal needs to be careful with their riseballs.

[OUBeliever56A]

I would now say, I am even more confused about pitching.

[oufanforever]

What a game by Brito, both offensively and defensively. Also, what a game by Jennings making the huge defensive play in the first and follow it up with a bomb.

[TropicalSooner]

Stats from SA:

Danley throws 36% Curve ball, 30% Drop ball, and 20% Changeup for her top 3 pitches
Gooden throws 39% Drop ball, 19% Curve ball, and 18% Screw ball for her top 3 pitches

These would suggest OU want to have a line up with Drop ball and curve ball hitters (e.g., Brito) higher in the order and rise ball hitters (maybe Hansen?) lower in the order.

OU hits .341 against LHP, .372 against RHP, .373 against Curve and .335 against Drop, so they probably will see more Drop balls in general. Despite the stats, Danley's changeup is her best pitch to my eyes, so OU has to be prepared for that.

Flip that:
Maxwell throws 33% Dropaball, 31% Fastball, and 13% Changeup, which is a big change from last year where she threw majority riseballs.
May throws 29% Changeup, 28% Riseball, and 18% Fastball
Deal throws 38% Curveball, 25% Riseball, and 18% Fastball
Keeney throws 47% Screwball, 31% Dropball, and 8% Curveball

FSU hits .321 against LHP, .330 against RHP, .363 against Riseball and .327 against Drop ball. So, Maxwell probably has the best match up, Followed by Keeney? May and Deal needs to be careful with their riseballs.

oufanforever, thank you so much for taking the time to transcribe this over to SoonerTimes. I saw your post on 365 and tried for a long time (but not an hour) to figure out how in the heck to cut and paste your original post to over here, but alas, I don't think the code on SoonerTimes likes me doing that very much--never figured it out and needed to get back to helping with other things at home. I thought it might help the discussion on who throws what. Anywy, thanks.

I wish Deal had a nasty Changeup like Nicole. Perhaps she can work on that this off-season. Keeney, would've been nice too, doesn't matter so much since she will graduate.

It does make me scratch my head about Coach's comments about the May over Deal selection for Oregon though. I suppose May does throw a dropball, just not as much as her other pitches, but apparently more often and has better command of it than KD does. I don't know.

Question: do you know or did SA indicate how they arrived at this data? From just watching replays? I am curious about that.

Thanks again!

[oufanforever]

Stats from SA:

Danley throws 36% Curve ball, 30% Drop ball, and 20% Changeup for her top 3 pitches
Gooden throws 39% Drop ball, 19% Curve ball, and 18% Screw ball for her top 3 pitches

These would suggest OU want to have a line up with Drop ball and curve ball hitters (e.g., Brito) higher in the order and rise ball hitters (maybe Hansen?) lower in the order.

OU hits .341 against LHP, .372 against RHP, .373 against Curve and .335 against Drop, so they probably will see more Drop balls in general. Despite the stats, Danley's changeup is her best pitch to my eyes, so OU has to be prepared for that.

Flip that:
Maxwell throws 33% Dropaball, 31% Fastball, and 13% Changeup, which is a big change from last year where she threw majority riseballs.
May throws 29% Changeup, 28% Riseball, and 18% Fastball
Deal throws 38% Curveball, 25% Riseball, and 18% Fastball
Keeney throws 47% Screwball, 31% Dropball, and 8% Curveball

FSU hits .321 against LHP, .330 against RHP, .363 against Riseball and .327 against Drop ball. So, Maxwell probably has the best match up, Followed by Keeney? May and Deal needs to be careful with their riseballs.

oufanforever, thank you so much for taking the time to transcribe this over to SoonerTimes. I saw your post on 365 and tried for a long time (but not an hour) to figure out how in the heck to cut and paste your original post to over here, but alas, I don't think the code on SoonerTimes likes me doing that very much--never figured it out and needed to get back to helping with other things at home. I thought it might help the discussion on who throws what. Anywy, thanks.

I wish Deal had a nasty Changeup like Nicole. Perhaps she can work on that this off-season. Keeney, would've been nice too, doesn't matter so much since she will graduate.

It does make me scratch my head about Coach's comments about the May over Deal selection for Oregon though. I suppose May does throw a dropball, just not as much as her other pitches, but apparently more often and has better command of it than KD does. I don't know.

Question: do you know or did SA indicate how they arrived at this data? From just watching replays? I am curious about that.

Thanks again!

SA has a partnership with Synergy Sports who provides them with the data for teams and individuals. Earlier this season they also shared data on the pitches Maxwell throws this year versus last year. Synergy also provides data to D1Softball, there you can find out hitters that does well against a particular type of pitch. For example, Jennings makes contact on 92.5% of changeups she sees and it near the top of the nation on that. Unfortunately, D1 only list the top 25 for the country, so you don't know how exactly each player on a team does.