Some initial thoughts about the FSU - OU Super Regional

[OUBeliever56A]

Some interesting notes about Florida State.

Their 14 losses were to 10 teams that made the playoffs. In those 14 losses, the Seminoles scored 70 runs but gave up 125. that is an average of 5 runs scored and 9 runs allowed in those 14 losses. FSU scored 10 runs against UCLA, Georgia and 13 against Florida and lost all three games.

They also had 3 wins where they gave up 8, 9, 7 runs but scored 9, 15, 17 runs to win the games.

Florida State allows 3.93 Runs/Game. They score 7.52 Runs/Game. So they have a margin of 3.59 Runs/Game.

Oklahoma scores 8.07 Runs/Game and allows 1.78 Runs/Game. Their margin is 6.29 Runs/Game. OU's margin is 1.75 times the FSU margin.

Here is how the two offenses stand in national rankings.

Scoring - OU 3rd, FSU 6th
BA - OU 2nd, FSU 8th
OB% - OU 1st, FSU 6th
Slug% - OU 2nd, FSU 6th
Doubles/G - OU 9th, FSU 21st
HR/G - OU 3rd, FSU 10th.

Outside of Texas, Florida State will be the second best offense that the Sooner pitching staff has faced. It is true that Oklahoma's pitching staff held Texas to 6 runs. I wonder if the the Sooner pitchers can turn in that type of performance again this weekend against Florida State.

The Seminoles, the Sooners and Oklahoma State have probably been the top three teams in the country since the start of the 2021 season. (Maybe UCLA and Alabama is in the top 5 also.) The Sooners and Florida State have played 6 times since the 2021 season began. Here are the scores.

2021 WS - FSU 4-8
2021 WS - OU 6-2
2021 WS - OU 5-1
2023 At Marita Hynes - OU 5-4
2023 WS - OU 5-0
2023 WS - OU 3-1

Oklahoma is 5-1 vs FSU over that time frame. That is with what I would say were fairly even pitching staffs and OU having an measurable advantage on offense.

In 2024, OU has a definite advantage with pitching and a slightly better offense.

If OU's pitching holds up, the Sooners should win. If it turns into a battle to see who can score the most runs, it is still an advantage for the Sooners, but not a "sure thing" if you will allow me to say that.

I think that among the four Super opponents since 2021 that Florida State is probably the 3rd best matchup against the Sooners. In 2023, I think Clemson was the best team to face OU, In 2021, I think Washington was the 2nd best and now FSU in 2024 is the 3rd best. UCF was the weakest of the 4 in 2022. But I think Washington and FSU are pretty even and are very different teams. Washington was built on pitching (Gabbie Plain) and FSU is built on offense in 2024.

Boomer Sooner!

[jmac11]

I have a lot of respect for the florida state softball program. This might be a tougher battle than I was anticipating. Their stats look good.

[TropicalSooner]

I'm just going to add on to OUBeliever's thread rather than start another one.

Florida State at first seemed like a Jekyll and Hyde team...had some nice wins and then some head scratching losses. And like Believer pointed out above, the losses were not (generally) tight game losses, they were spectacular: 10-14 to UCLA, 10-20 to Georgia, and so on. The pitching staff was going to be questioned "post Sandercock", if you will, because there was concern that there wasn't another arm that would "take-over" and be THAT Ace. It took a little while but after late March, they actually have performed reasonably well, running off a string of wins, including a nice 5 inning run-rule 12-3 win over Florida, followed by a 9 inning slugfest a week later with the Gators that they lost 13-15.

Coach Gasso said this morning on Plank's show that Florida State can really hit and they can run. They will pressure you. And it could turn into games of who can score the most runs. Their statistics bear this out.
Every one of their starters are hitting over .300 led by Jasoni Beachum at .425 with 11 2B's, 15 HR's, and 65 RBI's. Her OB% is .516 and SLG% is .746. Beachum, along with Ella Parker, is among the 10 finalists for the Tucci/NFCA Freshman of the Year award. Freshman SS Isa Tores (along with Kasidi Pickering) was in the Top 25 earlier. As a team, they are hitting .335 with 95 2Bs, 19 3B's, and 87 HR's. Also, importantly, they are a very disciplined team. They have struck out 146 times but received 257 free bases. And while they have made 52 error on the year for FLD% of .969, what I thought was more important was their offense has caused their opponents to make 91 errors for .943 Fld %. The Sooner defense will have to be very sharp, indeed.

The Achilles Heel for the Seminoles is there pitching staff. And for awhile, they seemed to be working things out to at least an acceptable level. But somewhere around mid-late April, pitcher Makenna Reid suffered an injury that apparently ended her season, she has not been to the circle since April 21st. And then a couple of days ago, in the last game with Auburn which they won, their Senior pitcher Allison Royalty left the game "with a noticable limp". If she is finished for the season also, that puts heavy strain on the remaining staff and their young freshman, Ashtyn Danley. Danley is a very good young pitcher, but beyond her, they have no real backup, and all remaining pitchers have era's of 4.25 and higher.

So to me the key to the Norman Super Regional will be the pitching staffs. If Maxwell/May/Deal can pitch just like they have all year long and keep their vaunted offense off the bases, then I really like our chances to win this series in two games and move on to OKC.

But we have to pitch lights out, because the Seminole's offense will be very good at taking advantage of any mistake that any of our pitchers serve up to them. If the pitch is too up in the zone, then it's going out of the park. Low in the zone should keep it in play, but we have to play error free because they will put the ball over the field and are very good at moving runners around the bases.

[oufanforever]

Royalty done for the year

[TropicalSooner]

Dang!
I feel so badly for her.

This is a real bummer. You want to win, of course, but you want to win against the best-to be known as the best.
And with two of their 3 top rotational pitchers out, this just casts a damper on the series.

Seeing this, we better not let our guard down because understaffed and / or underdog opponents can come up unexpectedly and hit you in the mouth when you feel like they won't be a challenge.

Play Ball, Ladies.....but beware!

[OUBeliever56A]

Sooner Softball vs Florida State starting Thurs: Supers @ Love's

The Oklahoma Sooners will host the vary familiar Florida State in the Super Regionals beginning on Thursday at Love's Field at 6 PM. The second game is on Friday at 7 PM. the final, if needed game is on Saturday and is yet to be given a starting time.

Thursday's game is on ESPN2 and to listen to the game you can use the Varsity App with Chris Plank on the play-by-play.

Here is the Sooner staff writers article about the Super Regional at Love's Field.

https://soonersports.com/news/2024/5/19 ... -may-23-25

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As for my thoughts on the Super Regional matchup versus Florida State.

First the history of the two teams in the last 3 years. --> The Sooners have won 5 of the 6 games they have played with 5 being in the WCWS Finals in 2021 (3) and 2023 (2). the other game was at Marita Hynes in 2023 in a rare ACC appearance in in Norman. The Sooners only loss was the opening game of the 2021 WCWS Finals game by the score of 8-4. But after that, the Sooners have won 5 straight and outscored the Seminoles by the combined score of 24-8.

What does Florida State look like in 2024? --> The Seminoles are truly a team driven by their offense in 2024 as they have hit a rough spot in the circle without their very valuable pitcher the last three years Kathryn Sandercock the last 4 years. Sandercock could have returned for 2024 but did not choose to do that. Florida State has had a hard time filling her innings and her quality of the innings she pitched.

In the circle, the Seminoles are down to probably 2 freshman pitchers and a little used senior. Sophomore Makenna Reid, has not pitched since April 21st. It sounds like senior Allison Royalty was injured and out for the season in the Regionals last week. Sophomore Madi Balk has not pitched since April 17th. That leaves the Seminoles with Ashlyn Dantley, Mimi Gooden and Emma Wilson. Wilson, the senior, has a 4.47 ERA and has not pitched since May 4th and has not pitched over 30 pitches in a month. I think she would be used as a spot reliever at best in the Supers or maybe to finish a game that is out of hand to prevent the other two freshman from pitching wasted innings.

The two freshman, Ashtyn Danley and Mimi Gooden will probably be used for 95% of the pitching for Florida State against Oklahoma.

• Danley, a lefty. has had a solid season with a 3.12 ERA and useable splits. Her pitching line allowed is .237 BA, .328 OB% and .330 Slug%. Dantley does a good job of not walking too many hitters and she does not give up many EBH with 31 in her 123 hits for 25% of her hits being EBH. I will note that Danley was a higher rated recruit than either of Ella Parker or Kasidi Pickering in two of my sources that I know of. She has talent, but is a young pitcher forced into innings. I will say that if you look at her stats, they are currently improving from earlier in the year so she is trending better lately.

• Mimi Gooden, a righty, has a pitching line allowed of .288 BA, .373 OB% and .405 Slug%. She has only pitched 52.2 innings this season with a 4.25 ERA and was not a Top 100 player as a recruit.

As a Team, The staff of FSU has a 3.60 ERA. Danley and Gooden has a 3.43 combined ERA. I do not think that the duo for FSU can hold Oklahoma down for the 2 or 3 games because once the Sooners have figured a pitcher out, she is usually in trouble. I think the "sooner" that happens, the Sooners will begin to dominate the play and simply score runs handily. If that happens, the question becomes can Oklahoma pitch well enough against the strong Florida State offense to win the series?

Here are the numbers. Florida State's offense scores 7.52 runs a game and as a team hits .335 BA, .421 OB% and .580 Slug%. They have hit 95 doubles, 19 triples and 87 HRs. The Seminoles are a very good offensive team. They also have stolen 85 bases in 100 attempts for an 85% safe-rate on steals. Do not be fooled, the Seminoles can cause havoc with their bats and their legs.

The Seminoles can send out a starting lineup with 9 hitters hitting above .303 BA and a OPS of at least .875+. Three of the starters are freshman for FSU. Beacham (3B), the best freshman, is hitting .425 BA, .516 OB% and .746 Slug% with 15 HRs. She was a top 40 prospect as FSU has cashed in on this player. Isa Torres (SS), is having a fine season as she is hitting .360 BA, .388 OB% and .581 Slug% with 23 EBH and 9 HRs. She was a Top 20 prospect. The veteran hitters of Michaela Edenfield (C with 15 HRs), Kalei Harding (DP-OF with 14 HRs), Devyn Flaherty (2B), Kaley Mudge (LF) and Jahni Kerr (OF with 9 HRs) are still there playing well in the field and at the plate.

The Sooners will have to pitch well to keep Seminoles from scoring those 7 runs a game. As proof of the Sooners being able to do that, I will mention the Texas series where OU allowed 6 runs to the Longhorns and the Longhorns has better offensive numbers than does FSU. Other than about three games, Miami (OH), Louisiana, BYU, UCF and two games against OSU, the Sooners have pitched very well this season. The Sooner staff has handled the majority of the Seminoles for three years also.

I have read that FSU has hit Maxwell well in the past, so I researched that. FSU has scored 13 runs against Maxwell in 18.0 innings. What I will say is this. the majotity of that damage was in 2023. In 2021 Maxwell pitched 8.1 innings and gave up 2 runs for a win. I will also add that I think Maxwell is a better pitcher in 2024 than she was in most of her OSU career.

May has pitched once against FSU, the opening game of the 2021 WCWS Finals. I will say that the game was almost 3 years ago and not worry about that one outing. I do not see where Keeney has pitched against FSU. I know that Deal, Monticelli and Geurin have not either.

To me that means that OU's staff could be largely new pitchers that they have to face in 2024 as Maxwell and May are different pitchers today and FSU has not seen the other four. I think that is very good news for the Sooners.

But, I think the Sooner pitching will be the key in the Supers as they face Florida State. If the Sooners can pitch true to form, meaning a couple of runs a game, the Sooners should be good enough on offense to win the Supers with confidence and a several runs to spare each game. Or at least I hope that. With Oklahoma sending five (5) hitters to the plate who hit .400 or better and 2 more that hit .374, the Sooners with their 96 doubles and 105 HRs should hit the freshman duo for FSU to provide any cushion that is needed against the Seminoles.

Good luck to the Sooners in the Supers. The weather could affect the game on Thursday so watch your social media.

Boomer Sooner!

[SoonerGirl1201]

Sorry to hear that FSU will be down their best 2 pitchers. Seems like anytime a good team is missing a key player or two they really step up their play. So, I agree, OU has to be ready to play its best game and not take the Seminoles lightly. I think even with their best 2 pitchers, OU has the edge and they just need to come out and play like they have been. One thing is for sure though, we can't leave a bunch of runners on base. We must capitalize on every hit, walk, sac fly, whatever to get a bunch of runs on the scoreboard and try and take the fight out of FSU early. I won't like it at all if it comes down to a close game in the 7th.

[OUBeliever56A]

https://soonersports.com/news/2024/5/22 ... r-regional