This is an undertaking that I might regret. But I am feeling pretty confident in what I have put on 'paper'. I am a bit surprised about how many seeded teams that I doubt or do not give the best chance to win their regional. Here goes.
#1 Texas - Austin Regional:
1 – Texas (47-7), 2 – Northwestern (33-11), 3 – St Francis (40-12), 4 – Siena (34-19)
Short story, Texas has 90% chance of winning the regional in three games. The 10% is due to the Northwestern pitcher, Miller. She may be good enough to surprise Texas in the winner’s bracket first game. But Texas is the very heavy favorite.
#2 Oklahoma - Norman Regional:
1 – Oklahoma (49-6), 2 – Oregon (28-19), 3 – Boston U (52-4-1), 4 – Cleveland State (22-24)
Not much of a longer story but there is a story. The Boston U pitcher, Ricard, makes everything possible for Boston U. She could be a difference maker. But can she beat Oregon and Oklahoma in the same weekend? We will see. I think Oklahoma has about a 90% chance of winning the regional in 3 games or 4 games.
#3 Tennessee - Knoxville Regional:
1 – Tennessee (40-10), 2 – Virginia (32-18), 3 – Miami (OH) (48-7), 4 – Dayton (33-19)
I think this regional can be interesting. Miami provides about as much intrigue as one can have due to their power. I am not sure Virginia can shut down the Miami offense as they break the single season HR mark this weekend. Well, they have a 99% chance to do so. So, the regional will boil down to the Miami offense against Pickens and Gottshall for Tennessee and the runs that Tennessee will score against the Miami pitchers. Tennessee has about a 70% chance of winning the regional in 3 games and it may have less of a chance in 4 games. That Miami offense is impressive and gets the other full 30% of the odds to win the regional.
#4 Florida - Gainesville Regional:
1 – Florida (46-12), 2 – South Alabama (32-18-1), 3 – Florida Atlantic (41-14), 4 – Florida Gulf Coast (37-19)
The regional will boil down to Lackie of South Alabama pitching against Rothrock pitching for Florida. But Florida has the offensive advantage with Wallace and Erickson. FGC does have Bonilla in the circle but not enough offense ever to beat Florida. Florida has about a 70% chance to win in 3 or 4 games. Florida is the pick but South Alabama gets 25% out of hat is left.
#5 Oklahoma State - Stillwater Regional:
1 – Oklahoma State (44-10), 2 – Kentucky (30-22), 3 – Michigan (41-16), 4 – Northern Colorado (27-24)
I do think Oklahoma State is the best team in this regional, but I think Kentucky and Michigan can give OSU trouble. If either of those teams can manage to get their best pitchers in the circle when Kilfoyl is not in the circle for OSU, they can win the game or take a lead. Schoonover (Kentucky) and Derkowski (Michigan) can surprise. I think OSU had about an 60% chance to be the winner due to their offense though. Kentucky probably gets 25% and Michigan gets 15% of the odds to win the regional.
#6 UCLA – Los Angeles Regional:
1 – UCLA (37-10), 2 – VA Tech (39-12-1), 3 – San Diego State (30-18), 4 – Grand Canyon (48-11)
VA Tech has the best stats of the four teams. GCU may have the 2nd best set of stats. I think UCLA’s two young pitchers will wear down in the regional. Lemley for VA Tech is key as is the pitching for GCU. I think UCLA has only about a 35% chance to win the regional. I give VA Tech 40% also and GCU 25%. Upset Alert in this regional.
#7 Missouri – Columbia Regional:
1 – Missouri (43-15), 2 – Washington (31-13), 3 – Indiana (40-18), 4 – Omaha (41-13)
I think that Washington (with Nelson and Meylan in the circle) is every bit as good as Missouri (Krings in the circle). Indiana is not too far behind them, and Mizzou better not overlook Omaha in the first game with Meyer in the circle. I give Missouri about a 40% chance to win the regional, Washington 45% and Indiana about 15% of a chance. Upset Alert in this regional.
#8 Stanford – Palo Alto Regional:
1 – Stanford (43-13), 2 – Mississippi State (33-18), 3 – Cal State Fullerton (36-17), 4 – St Mary’s (30-22)
I think Stanford will win the regional, but I can see Mississippi State winning the regional if they can score 3 or 4 runs against Canady and Stanford. Cal State Fullerton’s Rainy in the circle might surprise someone with a win. I give Stanford 50% of a chance to win the regional, the Bulldogs 40% and CSF about 10%.
#9 LSU – Baton Rouge Regional:
1 – LSU (40-15), 2 – California (36-17), 3 – Southern Illinois (42-9), 4 – Jackson State (33-17)
I am sorry that I just don’t believe in LSU or California. Berzon and Lynch can pitch for LSU, but I just don’t know about winning with less than 5 runs a game. I think Groff of Southern Illinois might outpitch everyone in this regional and provide a big upset in Baton Rouge. I give Southern Illinois a 42.5% chance to win the regional, LSU 37.5% and California 20%. Upset Alert in this regional in the final "IF" game.
#10 Duke – Durham Regional:
1 – Duke (47-6), 2 – South Carolina (34-22), 3 – Utah (34-20), 4 – Morgan State (35-18)
I believe in Duke. They were way under-seeded IMO. Duke is a large favorite in this regional. Yes, South Carolina could be trouble, but just do not do much on offense. I give Duke a 75% chance to win the regional with 15% for South Carolina and 10% for Utah.
#11 Georgia – Athens Regional:
1 – Georgia (39-16), 2 – Charlotte (38-16), 3 – Liberty (36-23), 4 – UNC Wilmington (33-21)
I think this regional is a toss-up. I like Charlotte’s pitching compared to Georgia’s. Their offense is similar. I think a couple of big innings may swing this regional one way or the other. I will say that this regional is a 45% chance to win by Georgia and Charlotte and about 10% for Liberty. Upset Alert in this regional in the final "IF" game.
#12 Arkansas – Fayetteville Regional:
1 – Arkansas ,936-16) 2 – Arizona (34-16-1), 3 – Villanova (31-22), 4 – SE Missouri State (28-24)
This is a toss-up regional between Arkansas and Arizona. I think Arizona is playing better right now than Arkansas right now. But I will narrow the odds and say that Arizona has 55% and Arkansas has 45% chance to win the regional.
#13 Louisiana – Lafayette Regional:
1 – Louisiana (42-17), 2 – Baylor (32-20), Ole Miss (31-25), 4 – Princeton (29-16)
Gee, if there was anyone else in the regional, I would pick them and I do not think that Louisiana would be the favorite. But I have to say that Baylor defeated Louisiana 2 out of 3 games early in the season. I wonder if this regional ends up being won based upon which pitchers pitch the best? Will it be Landry and someone for LA, Crandall and Binford for Baylor or Sparks for Ole Miss? I do not know. I will give Louisiana a 40% chance, Baylor a 35% chance and Ole Miss a 25% chance to win the regional. If Ole Miss wins the first game over Baylor, their chances go up considerably but Louisiana probably benefits more from an Ole Miss win.
#14 - Alabama – Tuscaloosa Regional:
1 – Alabama (33-17), 2 – Clemson (34-17), 3 – SE Louisiana (45-13), 4 – USC – Upstate (30-21)
I have no idea how Alabama got the 14th seed in the NCAA Tourney. But here they are. I think Clemson has a deeper pitching staff than the one pitcher Bama has in Beaver. Clemson scores 2 more runs a game also. To me Clemson has to be the favorite in the regional. Each team in the regional has good pitchers and SE Louisiana and Clemson score the most runs with over 6 runs a game. I think whoever wins the first game between Clemson and SE Louisiana will win the regional. I think the odds of winning the regional are this: Clemson 40%, SE Louisiana and Alabama are both at 30%. Upset Alert in this regional.
#15 - Florida State – Tallahassee Regional:
1 – Florida State (43-14), 2 – UCF (30-23), 3 – Auburn (27-19-1), 4 – Chattanooga (42-14)
This is the regional where we see if Penta of Auburn or Willis of UCF can outpitch the Florida State offense and if the FSU pitchers can manage to pitch well enough to win. But the UCF and Auburn hitting is not that strong. I will put the odds at 55% for Florida State, 30% for Auburn and 15% for UCF to win the regional.
#16 - Texas A&M – College Station Regional:
1 – Texas A&M (40-13), 2 – Texas State (45-13), 3 – Penn State (34-18), 4 – UAlbany (32-12)
This regional is a pitcher’s regional. It is Kennedy for A&M, Mullins for Texas State, Nemeth for Penn State or Hammond for UAlbany that will determine the winner? I think A&M probably has the most talent on the field though. That probably matters most. I will pick A&M as the favorite with 40%, Texas State with 30% and Penn State with 20% and even UAlbany with 10%.
My feelings will not be hurt if you shoot me down in any way. This is a bit like closing your eyes and throwing a dart at the bulls eye. But, at least I think, that I know who is the best teams in the regionals.
My thoughts on the NCAA Softball Regionals: Winners Odds Listed
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OUBeliever56A
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ohiosooner#1
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Interesting reading
Your observations indicate a lot of "up in the air"
regionals.
I predicted 3 upsets before reading your thoughts. After reading your thoughts there could be as many as 5 I think.
I think we came out pretty well if seeds hold. Texas got no breaks having to face the 8th seed, Stanford, if both make it to the World Series.
Your observations indicate a lot of "up in the air"
regionals.
I predicted 3 upsets before reading your thoughts. After reading your thoughts there could be as many as 5 I think.
I think we came out pretty well if seeds hold. Texas got no breaks having to face the 8th seed, Stanford, if both make it to the World Series.
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TropicalSooner
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I don't know enough about all the teams in the tournament, so I can't really put any odds down on who has the best chance of winning. But based on what I observed over the final few weeks of the regular season, I have some thoughts on which hosts I think don't make it out of their Regional.
LSU---I like Berzon, and I think she's really good. But her team was really letting her down at the end of the season. Same with Kelly Lynch. You've got to put up a run to win a game, and the Tigers were struggling doing that.
Georgia--Hate to say it---the Dawgs were another one of my pre-season favorites. But their pitching seems to have fallen off a cliff and their bats just can't keep up.
Arkansas--they have the misfortune of having Zona in their regional, and the Cats were coming on pretty good at the end of their season.
Alabama---not sure why they were hosting in the first place...history and name on front of jersey I guess.
Texas A&M--Texas St and Penn St and both too much for the Aggies, I think. The real matchup is between those two, I believe.
Other thoughts--
Stanford--good--rubber arm Canady is better and stronger this year--she can pitch every day if she wants to. I hope they get upset somewhere though, I just don't want to face her again.
UCLA--good--have been impressed with how much better Tinsley has become this year and even more impressed with their freshman Terry. The other two pitchers may as well stay home though.
Washington (in the Missou Regional)--nope---I love Ruby Meylan, but I worry that she has actually regressed a bit late in the year. Gets rattled pretty easily and giving up more walks than before. Not the same pitcher we saw in PV. Lopez has been saving the day for the Huskies, and Peters just isn't there yet. Plus, for whatever reason, the Huskies just can't win on Sundays. Go Figure.
Duke probably is underrated, but they've gotta get out of the ACC somehow if they want to get to the top 8 hosting spots.
Fla ST--I think they get by Penta, some how, and if they do, they'll be in Norman. What a fantastic rematch. And the storylines----Regionals we get Melyssa Lombardi. Supers, we get Lonni back again. Boomer!
LSU---I like Berzon, and I think she's really good. But her team was really letting her down at the end of the season. Same with Kelly Lynch. You've got to put up a run to win a game, and the Tigers were struggling doing that.
Georgia--Hate to say it---the Dawgs were another one of my pre-season favorites. But their pitching seems to have fallen off a cliff and their bats just can't keep up.
Arkansas--they have the misfortune of having Zona in their regional, and the Cats were coming on pretty good at the end of their season.
Alabama---not sure why they were hosting in the first place...history and name on front of jersey I guess.
Texas A&M--Texas St and Penn St and both too much for the Aggies, I think. The real matchup is between those two, I believe.
Other thoughts--
Stanford--good--rubber arm Canady is better and stronger this year--she can pitch every day if she wants to. I hope they get upset somewhere though, I just don't want to face her again.
UCLA--good--have been impressed with how much better Tinsley has become this year and even more impressed with their freshman Terry. The other two pitchers may as well stay home though.
Washington (in the Missou Regional)--nope---I love Ruby Meylan, but I worry that she has actually regressed a bit late in the year. Gets rattled pretty easily and giving up more walks than before. Not the same pitcher we saw in PV. Lopez has been saving the day for the Huskies, and Peters just isn't there yet. Plus, for whatever reason, the Huskies just can't win on Sundays. Go Figure.
Duke probably is underrated, but they've gotta get out of the ACC somehow if they want to get to the top 8 hosting spots.
Fla ST--I think they get by Penta, some how, and if they do, they'll be in Norman. What a fantastic rematch. And the storylines----Regionals we get Melyssa Lombardi. Supers, we get Lonni back again. Boomer!
aka Crimson47
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OUBeliever56A
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Thanks for your thoughts "TropicalSooner".
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TropicalSooner
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TN Sooner
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Good stuff guys - enjoy when you do this sort of review.
One thing struck me as I reviewed the seedings. When Stanford got the 8, I was glad we weren’t the 1. Facing a relatively fresh Canady in game 1 of World Series is a spot I’d rather avoid.
Of course, I’m not counting any chickens - let’s just beat Cleveland state.
One thing struck me as I reviewed the seedings. When Stanford got the 8, I was glad we weren’t the 1. Facing a relatively fresh Canady in game 1 of World Series is a spot I’d rather avoid.
Of course, I’m not counting any chickens - let’s just beat Cleveland state.
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OUBeliever56A
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Update for Sunday’s finals: The teams that are 2-0 are in bold.
#1 Texas - Austin Regional:
1 – Texas (47-7), 2 – Northwestern (33-11), 3 – St Francis (40-12), 4 – Siena (34-19)
Texas has 90% - Northwestern 10% to win the regional.
It is Texas vs Michigan in the finals. Texas will win.
#2 Oklahoma - Norman Regional:
1 – Oklahoma (49-6), 2 – Oregon (28-19), 3 – Boston U (52-4-1), 4 – Cleveland State (22-24)
Oklahoma has about a 90% chance of winning the regional.
It is Oklahoma vs Oregon in the finals. Oklahoma should win.
#3 Tennessee - Knoxville Regional:
1 – Tennessee (40-10), 2 – Virginia (32-18), 3 – Miami (OH) (48-7), 4 – Dayton (33-19)
Tennessee had about 75% to win the regional.
Miami (OH) had 99% chance to break the Team HR record. That slim 1% chance happened. Miami ended with 160 HRs as they have lost twice.
It is Tennessee vs Virginia in the finals. Tennessee probably has more than a 75% chance to win today. But the Virginia pitcher, Bingham is tough, maybe she steals one from Tennessee.
#4 Florida - Gainesville Regional:
1 – Florida (46-12), 2 – South Alabama (32-18-1), 3 – Florida Atlantic (41-14), 4 – Florida Gulf Coast (37-19)
Florida has about a 75% chance to win the regional. South Alabama and their pitcher, Lackie, has a shot to win the regional also.
It is Florida against South Alabama in the finals. South Alabama and their pitcher, Lackie, has a shot to win the regional also.
#5 Oklahoma State - Stillwater Regional
1 – Oklahoma State (44-10), 2 – Kentucky (30-22), 3 – Michigan (41-16), 4 – Northern Colorado (27-24)
OSU had about an 80% chance to be the winner of the regional.
It is Oklahoma State vs Michigan in the finals. OSU has the chance to beat each of the other teams in the regional. Michigan has a chance to win one game though.
#6 UCLA – Los Angeles Regional:
1 – UCLA (37-10), 2 – VA Tech (39-12-1), 3 – San Diego State (30-18), 4 – Grand Canyon (48-11)
I thought UCLA has only about a 35% chance to win the regional. I give VA Tech 40% also and GCU 25%. Upset Alert in this regional.
UCLA and Grand Canyon are in the finals. With UCLA needing only one win to advance, they have a 70% chance to win now. But GCU can surprise.
#7 Missouri – Columbia Regional:
1 – Missouri (43-15), 2 – Washington (31-13), 3 – Indiana (40-18), 4 – Omaha (41-13)
I gave Missouri about a 40% chance to win the regional, Washington 45% and Indiana about 15% of a chance. Upset Alert in this regional.
It is Missouri vs Omaha with Meyer in the circle in the finals. Omaha has defeated Missouri once. Missouri has to win two games today. I think Omaha may pull off this upset.
#8 Stanford – Palo Alto Regional:
1 – Stanford (43-13), 2 – Mississippi State (33-18), 3 – Cal State Fullerton (36-17), 4 – St Mary’s (30-22)
I thought Stanford would win the regional, but I give Stanford 50% of a chance to win the regional, the Miss State Bulldogs 40% and CSF about 10%. Cal State Fullerton’s Rainy in the circle might surprise.
It is Stanford vs Cal State Fullerton in the circle. Can Cal State Fullerton score enough to support Rainy pitching. Once maybe, twice, I doubt it. Stanford has to beat all three teams to win the regional.
#9 LSU – Baton Rouge Regional:
1 – LSU (40-15), 2 – California (36-17), 3 – Southern Illinois (42-9), 4 – Jackson State (33-17)
I think Groff of Southern Illinois might outpitch everyone in this regional and provide a big upset in Baton Rouge. I gave Southern Illinois a 45% chance to win the regional, LSU 35% and California 20%. Upset Alert in this regional.
It is LSU vs Southern Illinois in the finals. LSU defeated So Illinois 4 to 1 on Saturday. Groff may win one game today, but probably not two.
#10 Duke – Durham Regional:
1 – Duke (47-6), 2 – South Carolina (34-22), 3 – Utah (34-20), 4 – Morgan State (35-18)
I gave Duke an 80% chance to win the regional with 20% for South Carolina. There is still one game to play between South Carolina and Utah today to find out who plays Duke.
Duke will win the Regional as they have to win just one game. The other two teams have to win three.
#11 Georgia – Athens Regional:
1 – Georgia (39-16), 2 – Charlotte (38-16), 3 – Liberty (36-23), 4 – UNC Wilmington (33-21)
I think this regional is a toss-up. I said that this regional is a 45% chance to win by Georgia and Charlotte and about 10% for Liberty.
It is Liberty and Georgia in the finals. Georgia has to beat Liberty twice today. I think Liberty has a good chance to win the regional.
#12 Arkansas – Fayetteville Regional:
1 – Arkansas ,936-16) 2 – Arizona (34-16-1), 3 – Villanova (31-22), 4 – SE Missouri State (28-24)
This is a toss-up regional between Arkansas and Arizona. I think Arizona is playing better right now than Arkansas is playing.
The finals today is between Arizona and Villanova. Arizona will win the regional in an upset.
#13 Louisiana – Lafayette Regional:
1 – Louisiana (42-17), 2 – Baylor (32-20), Ole Miss (31-25), 4 – Princeton (29-16)
I gave Louisiana a 45% chance, Baylor a 40% chance and Ole Miss a 15% chance to win the regional.
It is Baylor vs Louisiana in the finals with Baylor just needing one win to advance. Glenn Moore may get Baylor to the Regionals again. I think Baylor wins this regional.
#14 - Alabama – Tuscaloosa Regional:
1 – Alabama (33-17), 2 – Clemson (34-17), 3 – SE Louisiana (45-13), 4 – USC – Upstate (30-21)
I thought the odds of winning the regional were this: Clemson 40%, SE Louisiana and Alabama are both at 30%. Upset Alert in this regional.
It is Alabama and SE Louisiana in the finals. SE Louisiana has to win two though. Bama’s Beaver win the game needed by Alabama to advance in a fairly weak regional.
#15 - Florida State – Tallahassee Regional:
1 – Florida State (43-14), 2 – UCF (30-23), 3 – Auburn (27-19-1), 4 – Chattanooga (42-14)
I called the odds at 45% for Florida State, 35% for Auburn and 20% for UCF to win the regional. Penta for Auburn outpitched Willis of UCF last night in 12 innings to advance.
The finals today are between Florida State and Auburn. I think FSU wins at least one game today to advance.
#16 - Texas A&M – College Station Regional
1 – Texas A&M (40-13), 2 – Texas State (45-13), 3 – Penn State (34-18), 4 – UAlbany (32-12)
I took A&M as the favorite with 35%, Texas State with 30% and Penn State with 25% and even UAlbany with 10%.
The finals today are between Texas A&M and Texas State. I think A&M is the better team and will win one game at least today.
#1 Texas - Austin Regional:
1 – Texas (47-7), 2 – Northwestern (33-11), 3 – St Francis (40-12), 4 – Siena (34-19)
Texas has 90% - Northwestern 10% to win the regional.
It is Texas vs Michigan in the finals. Texas will win.
#2 Oklahoma - Norman Regional:
1 – Oklahoma (49-6), 2 – Oregon (28-19), 3 – Boston U (52-4-1), 4 – Cleveland State (22-24)
Oklahoma has about a 90% chance of winning the regional.
It is Oklahoma vs Oregon in the finals. Oklahoma should win.
#3 Tennessee - Knoxville Regional:
1 – Tennessee (40-10), 2 – Virginia (32-18), 3 – Miami (OH) (48-7), 4 – Dayton (33-19)
Tennessee had about 75% to win the regional.
Miami (OH) had 99% chance to break the Team HR record. That slim 1% chance happened. Miami ended with 160 HRs as they have lost twice.
It is Tennessee vs Virginia in the finals. Tennessee probably has more than a 75% chance to win today. But the Virginia pitcher, Bingham is tough, maybe she steals one from Tennessee.
#4 Florida - Gainesville Regional:
1 – Florida (46-12), 2 – South Alabama (32-18-1), 3 – Florida Atlantic (41-14), 4 – Florida Gulf Coast (37-19)
Florida has about a 75% chance to win the regional. South Alabama and their pitcher, Lackie, has a shot to win the regional also.
It is Florida against South Alabama in the finals. South Alabama and their pitcher, Lackie, has a shot to win the regional also.
#5 Oklahoma State - Stillwater Regional
1 – Oklahoma State (44-10), 2 – Kentucky (30-22), 3 – Michigan (41-16), 4 – Northern Colorado (27-24)
OSU had about an 80% chance to be the winner of the regional.
It is Oklahoma State vs Michigan in the finals. OSU has the chance to beat each of the other teams in the regional. Michigan has a chance to win one game though.
#6 UCLA – Los Angeles Regional:
1 – UCLA (37-10), 2 – VA Tech (39-12-1), 3 – San Diego State (30-18), 4 – Grand Canyon (48-11)
I thought UCLA has only about a 35% chance to win the regional. I give VA Tech 40% also and GCU 25%. Upset Alert in this regional.
UCLA and Grand Canyon are in the finals. With UCLA needing only one win to advance, they have a 70% chance to win now. But GCU can surprise.
#7 Missouri – Columbia Regional:
1 – Missouri (43-15), 2 – Washington (31-13), 3 – Indiana (40-18), 4 – Omaha (41-13)
I gave Missouri about a 40% chance to win the regional, Washington 45% and Indiana about 15% of a chance. Upset Alert in this regional.
It is Missouri vs Omaha with Meyer in the circle in the finals. Omaha has defeated Missouri once. Missouri has to win two games today. I think Omaha may pull off this upset.
#8 Stanford – Palo Alto Regional:
1 – Stanford (43-13), 2 – Mississippi State (33-18), 3 – Cal State Fullerton (36-17), 4 – St Mary’s (30-22)
I thought Stanford would win the regional, but I give Stanford 50% of a chance to win the regional, the Miss State Bulldogs 40% and CSF about 10%. Cal State Fullerton’s Rainy in the circle might surprise.
It is Stanford vs Cal State Fullerton in the circle. Can Cal State Fullerton score enough to support Rainy pitching. Once maybe, twice, I doubt it. Stanford has to beat all three teams to win the regional.
#9 LSU – Baton Rouge Regional:
1 – LSU (40-15), 2 – California (36-17), 3 – Southern Illinois (42-9), 4 – Jackson State (33-17)
I think Groff of Southern Illinois might outpitch everyone in this regional and provide a big upset in Baton Rouge. I gave Southern Illinois a 45% chance to win the regional, LSU 35% and California 20%. Upset Alert in this regional.
It is LSU vs Southern Illinois in the finals. LSU defeated So Illinois 4 to 1 on Saturday. Groff may win one game today, but probably not two.
#10 Duke – Durham Regional:
1 – Duke (47-6), 2 – South Carolina (34-22), 3 – Utah (34-20), 4 – Morgan State (35-18)
I gave Duke an 80% chance to win the regional with 20% for South Carolina. There is still one game to play between South Carolina and Utah today to find out who plays Duke.
Duke will win the Regional as they have to win just one game. The other two teams have to win three.
#11 Georgia – Athens Regional:
1 – Georgia (39-16), 2 – Charlotte (38-16), 3 – Liberty (36-23), 4 – UNC Wilmington (33-21)
I think this regional is a toss-up. I said that this regional is a 45% chance to win by Georgia and Charlotte and about 10% for Liberty.
It is Liberty and Georgia in the finals. Georgia has to beat Liberty twice today. I think Liberty has a good chance to win the regional.
#12 Arkansas – Fayetteville Regional:
1 – Arkansas ,936-16) 2 – Arizona (34-16-1), 3 – Villanova (31-22), 4 – SE Missouri State (28-24)
This is a toss-up regional between Arkansas and Arizona. I think Arizona is playing better right now than Arkansas is playing.
The finals today is between Arizona and Villanova. Arizona will win the regional in an upset.
#13 Louisiana – Lafayette Regional:
1 – Louisiana (42-17), 2 – Baylor (32-20), Ole Miss (31-25), 4 – Princeton (29-16)
I gave Louisiana a 45% chance, Baylor a 40% chance and Ole Miss a 15% chance to win the regional.
It is Baylor vs Louisiana in the finals with Baylor just needing one win to advance. Glenn Moore may get Baylor to the Regionals again. I think Baylor wins this regional.
#14 - Alabama – Tuscaloosa Regional:
1 – Alabama (33-17), 2 – Clemson (34-17), 3 – SE Louisiana (45-13), 4 – USC – Upstate (30-21)
I thought the odds of winning the regional were this: Clemson 40%, SE Louisiana and Alabama are both at 30%. Upset Alert in this regional.
It is Alabama and SE Louisiana in the finals. SE Louisiana has to win two though. Bama’s Beaver win the game needed by Alabama to advance in a fairly weak regional.
#15 - Florida State – Tallahassee Regional:
1 – Florida State (43-14), 2 – UCF (30-23), 3 – Auburn (27-19-1), 4 – Chattanooga (42-14)
I called the odds at 45% for Florida State, 35% for Auburn and 20% for UCF to win the regional. Penta for Auburn outpitched Willis of UCF last night in 12 innings to advance.
The finals today are between Florida State and Auburn. I think FSU wins at least one game today to advance.
#16 - Texas A&M – College Station Regional
1 – Texas A&M (40-13), 2 – Texas State (45-13), 3 – Penn State (34-18), 4 – UAlbany (32-12)
I took A&M as the favorite with 35%, Texas State with 30% and Penn State with 25% and even UAlbany with 10%.
The finals today are between Texas A&M and Texas State. I think A&M is the better team and will win one game at least today.
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OUBeliever56A
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Yeah, this is late. (I have been busy out in my yard on a project lately.) But I thought I would make a couple of comments about the Regionals to wrap it up for me.
#1 Texas - No surprise here - Maybe my 90% they would win should have been 99%.
#2 Oklahoma - No real surprise here but maybe outscoring the Ducks 18-5 was a bit lower for runs scored than what I thought. But Oregon did pitch pretty well.
#3 Tennessee - They probably outperformed my 75% chance to win the regional. The Tennessee pitching duo looks very good.
#4 Florida - In their Regional, 75% ended up to low. Rothrock (FLA) easily outpitched Lackie (S Alabama) in the end with Florida's offense behind her.
#5 - Oklahoma State at 80% was about right with comfortable wins in their games.
#6 - UCLA outperformed VA Tech when it counted making my 35% for UCLA and 40% for VA Tech look bad. But it was the UCLA offense that made the difference.
#7 - Missouri at 40% did win their Regional over Washington who was 2 and gone who I thought had the best chance at 45% to win the Regional. GCU ran out of pitching.
#8 - Stanford at 50% found some pitching in the end and won the Regional.
#9 - LSU outlasted Southern Illinois and made my 35% for LSU and 45% for So Illinois. I overestimated Groff and underestimated Berzon / Lynch for LSU.
#10 - Duke at 80% looked pretty good. They are really under-seeded, IMO.
#11 - Georgia at 45% with Charlotte at 45% was a bad take on my part. Charlotte was 2 and gone and Georgia outlasted Liberty, barely.
#12 - Arizona and Arkansas was at 50% each. Arizona's consistent offense won the Regional. So I won a draw.
#13 - Baylor was on my radar at 40% but I thought Louisiana would win at 45%. Baylor scored enough to win even without pitching lights out. Louisiana might have slumped.
#14 - I did not believe in Bama's offense at 30%. I over estimated Clemson in all phases at 40% and thought SE LA might surprise at 30%. Bama pitched well and scored enough to win.
#15 - Florida State at 45% got enough pitching from Danley to win their Regional as Auburn's pitching did not hold up.
#16 - I gave A&M the slight advantage at 35% over the other three teams. They did their job and crushed Texas State's dream in the Finals.
11 for 16 is probably not good enough for me to say I did very well. But I still do not believe in UCLA, Missouri, LSU and Bama. Baylor winning over Louisiana was an upset as Glenn Moore and his staff continues to get more than he should out of his players.
Boomer Sooner!
#1 Texas - No surprise here - Maybe my 90% they would win should have been 99%.
#2 Oklahoma - No real surprise here but maybe outscoring the Ducks 18-5 was a bit lower for runs scored than what I thought. But Oregon did pitch pretty well.
#3 Tennessee - They probably outperformed my 75% chance to win the regional. The Tennessee pitching duo looks very good.
#4 Florida - In their Regional, 75% ended up to low. Rothrock (FLA) easily outpitched Lackie (S Alabama) in the end with Florida's offense behind her.
#5 - Oklahoma State at 80% was about right with comfortable wins in their games.
#6 - UCLA outperformed VA Tech when it counted making my 35% for UCLA and 40% for VA Tech look bad. But it was the UCLA offense that made the difference.
#7 - Missouri at 40% did win their Regional over Washington who was 2 and gone who I thought had the best chance at 45% to win the Regional. GCU ran out of pitching.
#8 - Stanford at 50% found some pitching in the end and won the Regional.
#9 - LSU outlasted Southern Illinois and made my 35% for LSU and 45% for So Illinois. I overestimated Groff and underestimated Berzon / Lynch for LSU.
#10 - Duke at 80% looked pretty good. They are really under-seeded, IMO.
#11 - Georgia at 45% with Charlotte at 45% was a bad take on my part. Charlotte was 2 and gone and Georgia outlasted Liberty, barely.
#12 - Arizona and Arkansas was at 50% each. Arizona's consistent offense won the Regional. So I won a draw.
#13 - Baylor was on my radar at 40% but I thought Louisiana would win at 45%. Baylor scored enough to win even without pitching lights out. Louisiana might have slumped.
#14 - I did not believe in Bama's offense at 30%. I over estimated Clemson in all phases at 40% and thought SE LA might surprise at 30%. Bama pitched well and scored enough to win.
#15 - Florida State at 45% got enough pitching from Danley to win their Regional as Auburn's pitching did not hold up.
#16 - I gave A&M the slight advantage at 35% over the other three teams. They did their job and crushed Texas State's dream in the Finals.
11 for 16 is probably not good enough for me to say I did very well. But I still do not believe in UCLA, Missouri, LSU and Bama. Baylor winning over Louisiana was an upset as Glenn Moore and his staff continues to get more than he should out of his players.
Boomer Sooner!
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